Assessment of Intra-Seasonal Variability and Trends of Precipitations in a Climate Change Framework in West Africa — Oak Academic Publishing
Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
Assessment of Intra-Seasonal Variability and Trends of Precipitations in a Climate Change Framework in West Africa
Laboratoire de Géosciences de l’Environnement et Applications, Université Nationale des Sciences, Technologies, Ingénierie et Mathématiques (UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
,
Laboratoire d’Hydrologie Appliquée (LHA), Institut National de l’Eau, Université d’Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Godomey, Benin
,
école Nationale Supérieure des Travaux Publics (ENSTP/UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
,
école Nationale Supérieure de Génie Mathématique et Modélisation (ENSGMM/UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
,
Laboratoire de Géosciences de l’Environnement et Applications, Université Nationale des Sciences, Technologies, Ingénierie et Mathématiques (UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
1 Laboratoire de Géosciences de l’Environnement et Applications, Université Nationale des Sciences, Technologies, Ingénierie et Mathématiques (UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
2 Laboratoire d’Hydrologie Appliquée (LHA), Institut National de l’Eau, Université d’Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Godomey, Benin
3 école Nationale Supérieure des Travaux Publics (ENSTP/UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
4 école Nationale Supérieure de Génie Mathématique et Modélisation (ENSGMM/UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
5 Laboratoire de Géosciences de l’Environnement et Applications, Université Nationale des Sciences, Technologies, Ingénierie et Mathématiques (UNSTIM), Abomey, Benin
Climate change has led human beings to take an interest in the study of meteorological and climatic phenomena. In fact, the main impact of climate change on different sectors of society is caused by extreme events since the occurrence of extreme events leads to more impact related to change in mean climate. Unfortunately, the West African region is vulnerable to extreme rainfall impact because its economy is based on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined the seasonal variability of extreme rainfall in West Africa. Eight (8) climate indices were chosen from among the 27 defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the seasonal trends. The indices of the same types (frequency or intensity) were compared to assess the intra-seasonal variation of extreme precipitation. The results indicate that, regardless of the season, the Gulf of Guinea receives more rainfall than the Sahel. This phenomenon is due to the fact that the coastal part of West Africa is under the influence of evaporation which is observed at the Atlantic Ocean and during the monsoon, while the other part is dominated by the desert. Mann-Kendall’s test revealed upward and downward trends during each season. The increase in extreme rainfall trends in the number of consecutive dry days suggests that droughts, due to global warming, could be observed and could have severe consequences in terms of water availability, energy supply, agricultural yields and ecosystems in West Africa. In addition, it can lead to the loss of biodiversity and health issues. It is therefore essential for policymakers or decisions makers to determine strategies and mitigation measures against climate change and its impacts on populations.
KeywordsExtreme PrecipitationIndicesVariabilityTrendMann KendallWest Africa
WMO (2007) WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2007. World Meteorological Organization, No. 1108. http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documents/WMO_1108_EN_web_000.pdf
L’Hôte, Y., Mahé, G., Somé, B. and Triboulet, J.P. (2002) Analysis of a Sahelian Annual Rainfall Index from 1896 to 2000; the Drought Continues. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47, 563-572. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660209492960
Lebel, T. and Ali, A. (2009) Recent Trends in the Central and Western Sahel Regime (1990-2007). Journal of Hydrology, 375, 52-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.030
Thierry, L., Bernard, C., Sylvie, G., Hanan, N., Kergoat, L., Levis, S., Vieux, B., et al. (2009) AMMA-CATCH Studies in the Sahelian Region of West-Africa: An Overview. Journal of Hydrology, 375, 3-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.020
Mahé, G. and Paturel, J.-E. (2009) 1896-2006 Sahelian Annual Rainfall Variability and Runoff Increase of Sahelian Rivers. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 341, 538-546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2009.05.002
Descroix, L., Niang, D., Dacosta, H., Panthou, G., Quantin, G. and Diedhou, A. (2013) évolution des pluies de cumul élevé et recrudescence des crues depuis 1951 dans le bassin du Niger moyen (Sahel). Climatologie, 10, 37-49. https://doi.org/10.4267/climatologie.78
Panthou, G., Vischel, T. and Lebel, T. (2014) Recent Trends in the Regime of Extreme Rainfall in the Central Sahel. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 3998-4006. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3984
GIEC (2014) Changements Climatiques 2014. In Medicine Meets Engineering (Vol. 133).
Kouamé, K.J., Jourda, J.P., Saley, M.B., Deh, S.K., Anani, A.T., Leblanc, Y., Cloutier, V. and Biémi, J. (2013) Modeling of Groundwater Flow and Drawdown Evolution Simulation of Abidjan Aquifer (Côte d’Ivoire). Journal of Asian Scientific Research, 3, 344-364.
Li, Y., He, D., Hu, J. and Cao, J. (2015) Variability of Extreme Precipitation over Yunnan Province, China 1960-2012. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 245-258. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3977
Alexander, L.V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T.C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A.M.G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D.B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M. and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. (2006) Global Observed Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D05109. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290
Acero, F.J., García, A.J. and Gallego, C.M. (2011) Peaks-over-Threshold Study of Trends in Extreme Rainfall over the Iberian Penísula. Journal of Climate, 24, 1089-1105. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3627.1
Panthou, G. (2013) Analyse des extrêmes pluviométriques en Afrique de l’Ouest et de leur évolution au cours des 60 dernières années. PhD Thesis, Université de Grenoble, Grenoble.
Pedron, T.I., Silva Dias, M.A.F., de Paula Dias, S., Carvalho, V.M.L. and Freitas, D.E. (2016) Trends and Variability in Extremes of Precipitation in Curitiba—Southern Brazil. International Journal of Climatology, 37, 1250-1264. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4773
Donat, M.G., Peterson, T.C., Brunet, M., King, A.D., Almazroui, M., Kolli, R.K., Boucherf, D., Al-Mulla, A.Y., Nour, A.Y., Aly, A.A., Nada, T.A.A., Semawi, M.M., Al Dashti, H.A., Salhab, T.G., El Fadli, K.I., Muftah, M.K., Dah Eida, S., Badi, W., Driouech, F., El Rhaz, K., Abubaker, M.J.Y., Ghulam, A.S., Erayah, A.S., Mansour, M.B., Alabdouli, W.O., Al Dhanhani, J.S. and Al Shekaili, M.N. (2013) Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in the Arab Region: Long-Term Trends and Variability Related to ENSO and NAO. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 581-592. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3707
Diatta, S., Diedhiou, C.W., Dione, D.M. and Sambou, S. (2020) Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in West Africa and Teleconnections with Remote Indices. Atmosphere, 11, Article No. 999. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090999
Klassou, K.S. and Komi, K. (2021) Analysis of Extreme Rainfall in Oti River Basin (West Africa). Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12, 1997-2009. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.154
Katz, R.W. and Brown, B.G. (1992) Extreme Events in a Changing Climate: Variability Is More Important than Averages. Climatic Change, 21, 289-302. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139728
Ardoin, S., Lubes-Niel, H., Servat, E., Dezetter, A., Boyer, J.F., Mahé, G. and Paturel, J.E. (2003) Analyse de la persistance de la sécheresse en Afrique de l’Ouest: Caractérisation de la situation de la décennie 1990. In: Servat, E., Najem, W., Leduc, C. and Shakeel, A., Eds., Hydrology of the Mediterranean and Semiarid Regions, IAHS Publ. 278, IAHS Press, Wallingford, 223-228.
Faye, C. (2013) évaluation et gestion intégrée des ressources en eau dans un contexte de variabilité hydroclimatique: Cas du bassin versant de la Falémé. Thèse de doctorat, Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Dakar, 309 p
Kouassi, A.M., Nassa, R.A.K., Koffi, Y.B., Kouame, K.F. and Biemi, J. (2018) Modélisation statistique des pluies maximales annuelles dans le District d’Abidjan (sud de la Côte d’Ivoire). Revue Des Sciences De L’Eau, 31, 147-160. https://doi.org/10.7202/1051697ar
Lafore, J.P., et al. (2010) Introduction to the AMMA Special Issue on “Advances in Understanding Atmospheric Processes over West Africa through the AMMA Field Campaign”. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 136, 2-7. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.583
Servat, é., Paturel, J.E., Lubès-Niel, H., Kouamé, B., Masson, J.M., Travaglio, M. and Marieu, B. (1999) De différents aspects de la variabilité de la pluviométrie en Afrique de l’Ouest et Centrale non sahélienne. Revue des sciences de l’eau/Journal of Water Science, 12, 363-387. https://doi.org/10.7202/705356ar
Sow, A.A. (2007) L’hydrologie du Sud-est du Sénégal et de ses Confins guinéomaliens: Les bassins de la Gambie et de la Falémé. Thèse de doctorat d’état, Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Dakar, 1232 p.
Le Lay, M. and Galle, S. (2005) Seasonal Cycle and Interannual Variability of Rainfall at Hydrological Scales. The West African Monsoon in a Sudanese Climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 50, 509-524. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.50.3.509.65029
Chede, F.D., Ibouraïma, Y. and Constant, H. (2020) Variabilité Intra-saisonnière De La Grande Saison Pluvieuse Dans Le Sud-Benin. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 16, Article No. 300. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2020.v16n6p300
M’Po, N.Y., Lawin, A.E., Yao, K.B., Oyerinde, T.G., Attogouinon, A. and Afouda, A.A. (2017) Decreasing Past and Mid-Century Rainfall Indices over the Ouémé River Basin, Benin (West Africa). Climate, 5, Article No. 74. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030074
Conway, G. (2007) The Science of Climate Change in Africa: Impacts and Adaptation the Science of Climate Change in Africa: Impacts and Adaptation Gordon Conway Chief Scientific Adviser Department for International Development.
Eltahir, E.A.B. and Gong, C. (1996) Dynamics of Wet and Dry Years in West Africa. Journal of Climate, 9, 1030-1042. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009 2.0.CO;2
Weldeab, S., et al. (2007) 155,000 Years of West African Monsoon and Ocean Thermal Evolution. Science, 316, 1303-1307. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1140461
Kottek, M., Grieser, J., Beck, C., Rudolf, B. and Rubel, F. (2006) World Map of the Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification Updated. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15, 259-263. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130
Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G.C., Jones, P., Tank, A.K., Peterson, T.C., Trewin, B. and Zwiers, F.W. (2011) Indices for Monitoring Changes in Extremes Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data, WIREs. Climatic Change, 2, 851-870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147
New, M., Hewitson, B., Stephenson, D.B., Tsiga, A., Kruger, A., Manhique, A., Gomez, B., Coelho, C.A., Masisi, D.N. and Kululanga, E. (2006) Evidence of Trends in Daily Climate Extremes over Southern and West Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D14102. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006289
Peterson, T.C., Taylor, M.A., Demeritte, R., Duncombe, D.L., Burton, S., Thompson, F., Porter, A., Mercedes, M., Villegas, E., Semexant, F.R., Klein, Tank, A., Martis, A., Warner, R., Joyette, A., Mills, W., Alexander, L. and Gleason, B. (2002) Recent Changes in Climate Extremes in the Caribbean Region. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, Article No. ACL 16-1-ACL 16-9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002251
Vincent, L.A., Peterson, T.C., Barros, V.R., Marino, M.B., Rusticucci, M., Carrasco, G., Ramirez, E., Alves, L.M., Ambrizzi, T., Berlato, M.A., Grimm, A.M., Marengo, J.A., Molion, L., Moncunill, D.F., Rebello, E., Anunciação, Y.M.T., Quintana, J., Santos, J.L., Baez, J., Coronel, G., Garcia, J., Trebejo, I., Bidegain, M., Haylock, M.R. and Karoly, D. (2005) Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature Extremes in South America 1960-2000. Journal of Climate, 18, 5011-5023. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3589.1
Christensen, A.J., Ehlers, S.L., Wiebe, J.S., Moran, P.J., Raichle, K. and Ferneyhough, K.L.W. (2002) Patient Personality and Mortality: A 4-Year Prospective Examination of Chronic Renal Insufficiency. Health Psychology, 21, 315-320. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.21.4.315
Drobinski, P., Da Silva, N., Panthou, G., Bastin, S., Muller, C., Ahrens, B., Borga, M., Conte, D., Fosser, G., Giorgi, F., Güttler, I., Kotroni, V., Li, L., Morin, E., Onol, B., Quintana Seguí, P., Romera, R. and Torma, C. (2018) Temperature-Precipitation Extremes Relationship in the Mediterranean: Past Climate Assessment and Projection in Anthropogenic Scenarios. Climate Dynamics, 51, 1237-1257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3083-x
Bera, S. (2017) Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Ganga Basin, India during 1901-2000. American Journal of Climate Change, 6, 116-131. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.61007
Obada, E., Alamou, A.E., Chabi, A., Zandagba, J. and Afouda, A. (2017) Trends and Changes in Recent and Future Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotranspiration in Benin (West Africa). Hydrology, 4, Article No. 38. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology4030038
Partal, T. and Kahya, E. (2006) Trend Analysis in Turkish Precipitation Data. Hydrological Processes, 20, 2011-2026. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5993
Jaagus, J. (2006) Trends in Sea Ice Conditions in the Baltic Sea near the Estonia, Coast during the Period 1949/1950-2003/2004 and Their Relationships to Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation. Boreal Environment Research, 11, 169-183.
Amoussou, E., Awoye, H., Vodounon, T.S.H., Obahoundje, S., Camberlin, P., Diedhiou, A., Kouadio, K., Mahé, G., Houndénou, C. and Boko, M. (2020) Climate and Extreme Rainfall Events in the Mono River Basin (West Africa): Investigating Future Changes with Regional Climate Models. Water, 12, Article No. 833. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030833
Taylor, C., Belusic, D., Guichard, F., Parker, D., Vischel, T., Bock, O., Harris, P., Janicot, S., Klein, C. and Panthou, G. (2017) Frequency of Extreme Sahelian Storms Tripled since 1982 in Satellite Observations. Nature, 544, 475-478. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22069
Adedoyin, A., et al. (2005) Evaluating the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate System Model over West Africa: Present-Day and the 21st Century A1 Scenario. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 110, 18 p. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004689
Odoulami, R.C. and Akinsanola, A.A. (2018) Recent Assessment of West African Summer Monsoon Daily Rainfall Trends. Weather, 73, 283-287. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2965
Sanogo, S., Fink, A.H., Omotosho, J.A., Ba, A., Redl, R. and Ermert, V. (2015) Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of the Recent Rainfall Recovery in West Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 4589-4605. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4309
Tabari, H. and Talaee, P.H. (2011) Temporal Variability of Precipitation over Iran: 1966-2005. Journal of Hydrology, 396, 313-320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.11.034
Atiah, W.A., Tsidu, G.M., Amekudzi, L.K. and Yorke, C. (2020) Trends and Interannual Variability of Extreme Rainfall Indices over Ghana, West Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 140, 1393-1407. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03114-6
Voundou, D.A., Guenang, G.M., Djiotang, T.L.A. and Kamsu-Tamo, P.H. (2021) Trends and Interannual Variability of Extreme Rainfall Indices over Cameroon. Sustainability, 13, Article No. 6803. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126803
Yabi, I. and Afouda, F. (2012) Extreme Rainfall Years in Benin (West Africa). Quaternary International, 262, 39-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2010.12.010
Nicholson, S. (2005) On the Question of the “Recovery” of the Rains in the West African Sahel. Journal of Arid Environments, 63, 615-641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.004
Aguilar, E., Barry, A.A., Brunet, M., Ekang, L., Fernandes, A., Massoukina, M., Mbah, J., Mhanda, A., do Nascimento, D.J., Peterson, T.C., Umba, T.O., Tomou, M. and Zhang, X. (2009) Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Western Central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D02115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011010
Paturel, J.E., Ouedraogo, M., Servat, E., Mahe, G., Dezetter, A. and Boyer, J.F. (2003) The Concept of Rainfall and Streamflow Normals in West and Central Africa in a Context of Climatic Variability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48, 125-137. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.125.43479