Modeling Daily Average Temperatures in a Coastal Site of Central Africa: An Analysis of Seasonal Divisions

Abstract

The seasonality and day-to-day variation of near-surface temperature patterns can greatly control nearly all physical and biological processes though temperature predictions at such scales remain challenging. This paper implements a simple analytical approach in order to generate daily average temperatures which implic itly accounts for surface heating and drivers through a comprehensive representation of station-based temperature records on a universal standard calendar propagated by the earth’s dynamics features. The modeled and observed pattern of daily temperatures exhibits a close agreement with the level of strength agreement exceeding 0.56. The extreme high and low values of the observed temperature patterns are equally well captured alth ough model underestimates the probability of temperatures around the two modal peaks (~25.6 ℃ and 27.5 ℃ ). Additionally, a theoretical thermal-based divi si on led to the identification of six seasons, including two hot and cold periods along with two pairs of mixed hot-cold. The theoretical division proposed here appears to be a good approximation for the understanding of rainfall seasonalit y in this area.