The Influence of Major Climatic Elements on the Devastated Geo-Hydrological Disasters: A Case of Hanang Disaster of 3rd December 2023 in Tanzania — Oak Academic Publishing
Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
The Influence of Major Climatic Elements on the Devastated Geo-Hydrological Disasters: A Case of Hanang Disaster of 3rd December 2023 in Tanzania
Department of Geography and History, Mwalimu Nyerere Memorial Academy, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
,
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
,
Department of Climatology and Climate Change, Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
,
Department of Climatology and Climate Change, Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
,
Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
1 Department of Geography and History, Mwalimu Nyerere Memorial Academy, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
2 Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
3 Department of Climatology and Climate Change, Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
4 Department of Climatology and Climate Change, Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
5 Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Changes in major climatic elements such as temperature, precipitation and wind distribution have triggered weather-related and geophysical disasters. In recent years, the globe has experienced an increased number of floods and landslide events which are said to be the most common among other natural disasters. This study examines the influence of climatic elements on the geo-hydrological disaster which occurred in Hanang district-Tanzania on 3 rd December 2023. The study used the primary data collected from 182 respondents. Also, the trend analysis (1981-2023) was conducted using average rainfall from 7 meteorological stations in the study area. Annual and seasonal rainfall as well as a number of rainy days were analyzed. The calculated rainfall data were then used to compute the dimensions of the standardized precipitation anomalies (SPA) which is designated as SPA = ( P − P *)/ σp . Besides, the temperature was analysed to investigate its trend and trend anomaly. Also, the wind rose statistics for the annual, March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND) for the climatology period of 1991-2020 were analysed so as to examine its contribution to rainfall distribution in Hanang district. The examination of annual rainfall data indicates an upward trend in precipitation levels, accompanied by notable variability in rainfall patterns, including seasonal anomalies and deviations from historical averages. The combination of elevated rainfall, anomalies in rainfall patterns, and potentially unfavourable terrain characteristics may have contributed to devastated geo-hydrological disaster risk. However, future research is recommended that could focus on integrating rainfall and temperature data with comprehensive geo-hydrological susceptibility assessments, considering factors such as terrain stability, land cover and land use practices.
Chaudhary, M.T. and Piracha, A. (2021) Natural Disasters—Origins, Impacts, Management. Encyclopedia , 1, 1101-1131. https://doi.org/10.3390/encyclopedia1040084
Thomas, A. and López, R. (2015) Climate-Related Disasters and Human Security. Cli-mate Policy , 15, 662-677.
Wei, W., Wang, H. and Zhang, L. (2012) Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Arid Region of Northwest China. Environmental Science and Technology , 46, 7112-7118.
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) (2022) Disasters in Numbers 2021. https://www.cred.be/sites/default/files/CredCrunch66.pdf
Kamai, T., Weisbrod, N. and Dragila, M.I. (2009) Impact of Ambient Temperature on Evaporation from Surface-Exposed Fractures. Water Resources Research , 45, W02417. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008wr007354
Kulina, M. (2008) Correlation between Air Temperature, Rainfall and Weekly Fruit Growth Rate in Some Apple Varieties. Acta Agriculturae Serbica , 26, 39-48.
Nkuna, Z. and Odiyo, J.O. (2016) Rainfall Variability and Its Implications for Water Resources in Southern Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A / B / C , 92, 27-33.
Chobo, J.S. and Huo, L. (2024) The Relationship between Extreme Precipitation Events in East Africa during the Short Rainy Season and Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection , 12, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2024.129001
Henke, D., Smyth, P., Haffke, C. and Magnusdottir, G. (2012) Automated Analysis of the Temporal Behavior of the Double Intertropical Convergence Zone over the East Pacific. Remote Sensing of the Environment , 123, 418-433.
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S.J., Neff, U., Mudelsee, M., Mangini, A., Kramers, J., et al . (2004) Holocene Records of Rainfall Variation and Associated ITCZ Migration from Stalagmites from Northern and Southern Oman. In: Diaz, H.F. and Bradley, R.S., Eds., The Hadley Circulation : Present , Past and Future , Springer Netherlands, 259-287. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-2944-8_10
Lietzke, C.E., Deser, C. and Vonder Haar, T.H. (2001) Evolutionary Structure of the Eastern Pacific Double ITCZ Based on Satellite Moisture Profile Retrievals. Journal of Climate , 14, 743-751. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0743:esotep>2.0.co;2
Mamalakis, A., Randerson, J.T., Yu, J., Pritchard, M.S., Magnusdottir, G., Smyth, P., et al . (2021) Zonally Contrasting Shifts of the Tropical Rain Belt in Response to Climate Change. Nature Climate Change , 11, 143-151. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00963-x
Schneider, U., Becker, A., Finger, P. and Meyer-Christoffer, A. (2014) The New/Global Gridded Data Set of Monthly Precipitation and Temperature for the Period 1951-2010. Global Change Research Data Publishing , 56, 1455-1465.
Kebacho, L.L. (2022) Interannual Variations of the Monthly Rainfall Anomalies over Tanzania from March to May and Their Associated Atmospheric Circulations Anomalies. Natural Hazards , 112, 163-186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05176-9
Lashkari, H. and Jafari, M. (2021) Annual Displacement and Appropriate Index to Determine ITCZ Position in East Africa and the Indian Ocean Regions. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics , 133, 1111-1126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00797-y
Indeje, M., Semazzi, F.H.M. and Ogallo, L.J. (2000) ENSO Signals in East African Rainfall Seasons. International Journal of Climatology , 20, 19-46. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(200001)20:1<19::aid-joc449>3.0.co;2-0
Kew, S.F., Philip, S.Y., Hauser, M., Hobbins, M., Wanders, N., van Oldenborgh, G.J., et al . (2021) Impact of Precipitation and Increasing Temperatures on Drought Trends in Eastern Africa. Earth System Dynamics , 12, 17-35. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021
Kharb, A., Bhandari, S., Moitinho de Almeida, M., Castro Delgado, R., Arcos González, P. and Tubeuf, S. (2022) Valuing Human Impact of Natural Disasters: A Review of Methods. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 19, Article 11486. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191811486
Venton, C.C. and Hansford, G. (2006) Reducing Risk of Disaster in Our Communities. Tearfund. https://learn.tearfund.org/en/resources/series/roots-guides/reducing-risk-of-disaster-in-our-communities--a-roots-guide
Peduzzi, P., Dao, H., Herold, C. and Mouton, F. (2009) Assessing Global Exposure and Vulnerability towards Natural Hazards: The Disaster Risk Index. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences , 9, 1149-1159. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1149-2009
Seneviratne, S.I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C.M., Kanae, S., Kossin, J., et al . (2012) Changes in Climate Extremes and Their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment. In: Field, C.B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F. and Dahe, Q., Eds., Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation , Cambridge University Press, 109-230. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781139177245.006
Srinivas, R. (2022) Understanding Disaster Management: A Socio-Environmental Approach. Disaster Studies Quarterly , 8, 150-174.
Bankoff, G., Frerks, G. and Hilhorst, D. (2003) Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People. Routledge.
Juntunen, L. (2005) Addressing Social Vulnerability to Hazards. Disaster Safety Re-view , 4, 3-10.
Flanagan, B.E., Hallisey, E.J., Adams, E. and Lavery, A. (2018) Measuring Community Vulnerability to Natural and Anthropogenic Hazards: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index. Journal of Environmental Health , 80, 34-36.
Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) (2022) Climate Risks in Africa. State and Trends in Adaptation Report. https://gca.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GCA_State-and-Trends-in-Adaptation-2022_Climate-Risks-in-Africa.pdf
Murtugudde, R., Seager, R. and Thunell, R. (2004) Climatic Variability in the Indian Ocean Region. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 85, 1413-1425.
Kijazi, A.L. and Reason, C.J.C. (2007) Interannual Variability of Rainfall Characteristics over Tanzania and Their Connections to El Niño Southern Oscillation. Inter-national Journal of Climatology , 27, 683-692.
Mutai, C.C., Ward, M.N. and Colman, A.W. (1997) Towards the Prediction of the East African Short Rains Based on Sea-Surface Temperature-Atmosphere Coupling. International Journal of Climatology , 17, 1177-1192.
Semazzi, F.H.M., Ogallo, L.J. and Indeje, M. (1993) A GCM Study of the Teleconnections between the Regional Climate of East Africa and Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. Journal of Climate , 6, 1274-1289.
Funk, C., Peterson, P., Landsfeld, M., Pedreros, D., Verdin, J., Shukla, S., et al . (2015) The Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations—A New Environmental Record for Monitoring Extremes. Scientific Data , 2, Article ID: 150066. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66
McMahon, T.A. and Peel, M.C. (2001) Two Centuries of Australian Rainfall and Runoff Data. Australian Journal of Water Resources , 5, 5-15.
Ehsan, S. and Sadiq, R. (2015) Seasonal Rainfall Anomalies and Their Impact on Water Availability in Arid Regions. Journal of Hydrology , 528, 100-110.
McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J. and Kleist, J. (1993) The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. Proceedings of the 8 th Conference on Applied Climatology , Anaheim, 17-22 January 1993, 179-183.
Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association , 63, 1379-1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
Kendall, M.G. (1975) Rank Correlation Methods. Charles Griffin.
Kutner, M.H., Nachtsheim, C.J., Neter, J. and Li, W. (2004) Applied Linear Statistical Models. 5th Edition, McGraw-Hill Irwin.
Saito, K. and Aoki, K. (2016) Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Precipitation and Its Relation to Atmospheric Circulation. Journal of Climate Research , 45, 1023-1035.
Kilembe, C., Thomas, T.S., Waithaka, M., Kyotalimye, M. and Tumbo, S. (2012) East Africa Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis—Tanzania. IFPRI. http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/127936
Lobell, D.B. and Burke, M.B. (2010) On the Use of Statistical Models to Predict Crop Yield Responses to Climate Change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , 150, 1443-1452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.07.008
Malekela, A.A., Sieber, S., Mapunda, J. and Chobo, J.S. (2024) Contemporary Agricultural Land Management Practices under Climate Change and Population Increase Scenarios: Insights from Tanzania’s Southern Highlands. Journal of Geography , Environment and Earth Science International , 28, 41-52. https://doi.org/10.9734/jgeesi/2024/v28i4763
Mkonda, M.Y. (2022) Awareness and Adaptations to Climate Change among the Rural Farmers in Different Agro-Ecological Zones of Tanzania. Management of Environmental Quality : An International Journal , 33, 1502-1527. https://doi.org/10.1108/meq-10-2021-0241
Cánovas, J.B., Stoffel, M., Corona, C., Schraml, K., Gobiet, A., Tani, S., Sinabell, F., Fuchs, S. and Kaitna, R. (2016) Debris-Flow Risk Analysis in a Managed Torrent Based on a Stochastic Life-Cycle Performance. Science of the Total Environment , 557-558, 142-153.
Dowling, C.A. and Santi, P.M. (2013) Debris Flows and Their Toll on Human Life: A Global Analysis of Debris-Flow Fatalities from 1950 to 2011. Natural Hazards , 71, 203-227. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0907-4
Fuchs, S., Keiler, M., Sokratov, S. and Shnyparkov, A. (2012) Spatiotemporal Dynamics: The Need for an Innovative Approach in Mountain Hazard Risk Management. Natural Hazards , 68, 1217-1241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0508-7
Gamoyo, M., Reason, C. and Obura, D. (2014) Rainfall Variability over the East African Coast. Theoretical and Applied Climatology , 120, 311-322. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1171-6
Johansson, B. and Chen, D. (2003) The Influence of Wind and Topography on Precipitation Distribution in Sweden: Statistical Analysis and Modelling. International Journal of Climatology , 23, 1523-1535. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.951