Spatio-Temporal Variations of Precipitation Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin (1960-2002), China
- 1
- 2
- 3
Abstract
Daily precipitation data during 1960-2002 from 150 stations in the Yangtze River basin were analyzed with the help of linear trend analysis. Highest 5-day and 10-day precipitation amount (R5D and R10D) and percentile daily precipitation maxima (prec95p for 95th percentile and prec99p for 99th percentile) were accepted as the precipitation extreme index. The frequency of the R5D and R10D was in downward trend, this phenomenon is more obvious in the middle Yangtze River basin; The stations with total precipitation of R5D and R10D are in significant upward trend (> 95% confidence level) are mostly located in the lower Yangtze River basin and the south-western part of the Yangtze River basin; 2) the spatial distribution of the frequency of total precipitation of the percentile daily precipitation maxima is similar to that of R5D and R10D. However the frequency of prec95p and prec99p is in significant upward trend. The upward trend of total precipitation changes of prec95p and prec99p is more obvious than that of frequency of prec95p and prec99p. The regions dominated by upward trend of frequency/total precipitation of prec95p and prec99p are also the lower Yangtze River basin and south-western part of the Yangtze River basin. Therefore the occurrence probability of the flash floods in the lower Yangtze River basin and south-western part of the Yangtze River basin will be greater.
- B. C. Hewitson, “A Methodology for Developing Regional Climate Change Scenarios from General Circulation Models,” WRC Report, Vol. 1, No. 594, 1997, pp. 35.
- D. Labat, Y. Goddéris, J. L. Probst, J. L. Guyot, “Evidence for Global Runoff Increase Related to Climate Warming,” Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 27, 2004, pp. 631-642.
- A. M. Fowler, and K. J. Hennessy, “Potential Impacts of Global Warming on the Frequency and Magnitude of Heavy Preci-pitation,” Natural Hazards, Vol. 11, 1995, pp. 283-303.
- A. O. Lucero, D. Rozas, “Characteristics of Aggregation of Daily Rainfall in a Middle-Latitudes Region during a Climate Variability in Annual Rainfall Amount,” Atmospheric Research, Vol. 61, 2002, pp. 35-48.
- E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, and D. E. Parker, “The Changing Incidence of Extremes in Worldwide and Central England Temperatures to the End of the Twentieth Century,” Climate change, Vol. 50, 2001, pp. 67-295.
- N. Plummer, M. James, S. Neville, N. Ramasamy, “Changes in Climate Extremes over the Australian Region and New Zealand during the Twentieth Century,” Climate Change, Vol. 42, 1999, pp. 183-202.
- P. Y. Groisman, T. Karl, D. Easterling, R. W. Knight, “Changes in the Probability of the Heavy Precipitation:
- Important Indicators of the Climate Change,” Climate Change, Vol. 42, 1999, pp. 243-283.
- T. R. Karl, R. W. Knight, and N. Plummer, “Trends in High-Frequency Climate Variability in the Twentieth Century,” Nature, Vol. 377, 1995, pp. 217-220.
- D. R. Easterling, G. A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S. A. Changnon, T. R. Karl, and L. O. Mearns, “Climate Extremes Observations, Modelling, and Impacts,” Science, Vol. 289, 2000, pp. 2068-2074.
- Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Ministry of Water Resources(CWRC), “Waterlogging and Aridity Disasters in the Yangtze River Basins,” Chinese Hydraulic Power and Electric Force Press, Beijing, 2002.
- Q. Zhang, T. Jiang, M. Germmer, S. Becker, “Pre-cipitation, Temperature and Discharge Analysis from 1951 to 2002 in the Yangtze River Basin, China,” Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 50, No. 1, 2005, pp. 65-80.
- C. Jones, E. D. Waliser, M. K. Lau, W. Stern, “Global Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Observations and Predictability,” American Meteorological Society, Vol. 17, 2004, pp. 4575-4589.