Extremely Cold and Warm Days in the Spanish Central Plateau: Analysis of Its Evolution from 1961 to 2010

Abstract

From anomalies of daily data of maximum and minimum temperatures, that have been obtained as difference between the real data of every day and the average data of the corresponding day of the year in each of the 14 observatories of the Spanish Central Plateau (8 in North subplateau and 6 in the South subplateau) between 1961-2010, the extremely cold and warm days are determined, throughout all the year, in all the study area and the two different sub areas. We consider a day as an extremely cold day (ECD) if achieves simultaneously the following conditions: the anomaly of minimum temperature of the day is lower than the value of the P 05 percentile of the series of daily anomalies of minimum temperature, and the value of the anomaly of daily maximum temperature is lower, as well, than the P 05 percentile of the corresponding series of anomalies. The values of the thresholds determined by these percentiles are obtained considering the complete anomalies daily series of temperature for all the study regions. In order to establish the extremely warm days the methodology is the same but the conditions are: the anomaly of minimum temperature of the day is greater than the value of the P 95 percentile of the series of daily anomalies of minimum temperature, and the value of the anomaly of daily maximum temperature is greater as well than the P 95 percentile of the corresponding anomalies series. Once the extremely warm and cold days are determined, throughout the year in the period of time considered, for each zone, the corresponding series of annual frequencies are obtained. The analysis of tendency of these series indicates that in all the cases the tendency of the frequency of the extremely cold days is decreasing. Considering a linear model for the temporary behavior of the frequency, the reduce is of the order of 1 day every 10 years. In the case of the extremely warm days its annual frequency presents an increasing tendency, which indicates that the number of extremely warm days per year has been increased during the studied time interval. In agreement with the linear model of behavior, the increase is, approximately, of the order of 1 day per decade.