The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a logical chain of events can be established to explain the abrupt climatic regime shift changes in the Pacific that link the atmosphere to the ocean to fisheries impacts. The investigation endeavors to identify synchronous abrupt changes in a series of data sets to establish the feasibility of abrupt of climate change often referred to as regime shifts. The study begins by using biological (fish catch/stock) markers to mathematically identify the dates of abrupt change. The dates are confirmed by a literature search of parameters that also show abrupt changes on the same dates. Using the biological date markers of abrupt change, analyses are performed to demonstrate that the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, ecosystems and fisheries are a plausible approach to explaining abrupt climate change and its impacts.
KeywordsClimate Regime ShiftFishery
T. Kawasaki, “Why Do Some Pelagic Fishes Have Wide Fluctuations in Their Numbers? Biological Basis of Fluctuation from the Viewpoint of Evolutionary Ecology,” FAO Fisheries Report, Vol. 291, 1983, pp. 1065-1080
F. P. Chavez, J. Ryan, S. E. Lluch-Cota and C. M. Niquen, “From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal Change in the Pacific Ocean,” Science, Vol. 299, 10 Jan 2003, pp. 217-221. doi:10.1126/science.1075880
A. Takasuka, Y. Oozeki, H. Kubota and S. E. Lluch-Cota, “Contrasting Spawning Temperature Optima: Why Are Anchovy and Sardine Regime Shifts Synchronous Across the North Pacific?” Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 77, 2008, pp. 225-232. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2008.03.008
D. Lluch-Belda, R. A. Schwartzlose, R. Serra, R. Parrish, T. Kawasaki, D. Hedgecock and R. J. M. Crawford, “Sardine and Anchovy Regime Fluctuations of Abundance in Four Regions of the World Oceans: A Workshop Report,” Fisheries Oceanography, Vol. 1, 1992, pp. 339-347. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2419.1992.tb00006.x
B. DeYoung, R. Harris, J. Alheit, G. Beaugrand, N. Mantua and L. Shannon, “Detecting Regime Shifts in the Ocean: Data Considerations,” Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 60, 2004, pp. 143-164. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.017
P. Lehodey, A J. Alheit, B M. Barange, C. T. Baumgartner, D. G. Beaugrand, E. K. Drinkwater, F. J. M. Fromentin, G. S. R. Hare, H. G. Ottersen, F. R. I. Perry, I. C. Roy, J. C. D. K. Van Der Lingen and F. Werner, “Climate Variability, Fish, and Fisheries,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, 2006, pp. 1009-1029. doi:10.1175/JCLI3898.1
Mason, J. E., “Historical Patterns From 74 Years Of Commercial Landings From California Waters,” CalCOFI Rep., Vol. 45, 2004, pp. 180-190.
E. Kalnay, et al., “The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, 1996, pp. 437-471. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077 2.0.CO;2
A. M. Powell and J. Xu, “Possible Solar Forcing of Interannual and Decadal Stratospheric Planetary Wave Variability in the Northern Hemisphere: An Observational Study,” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2011. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2011.02.001.
Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace and D. S. Battisti, “ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900-93,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, 1997, pp. 1004-1020. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010 2.0.CO;2
K. E. Trenberth. and J. W. Hurrell, “Decadal Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Pacifc,” Climate Dynamics, Vol. 9, 1994, pp. 303-319.doi:10.1007/BF00204745
W. J. Burroughs, Climate Change a Multidisciplinary Approach, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2001.
W. J. Burroughs, Weather Cycles Real or Imaginary? Cambridge University Press, New York. 2003:
W. T. Peterson, , R. C. Hooff, C. A. Morgan, K. L. Hunter, E. Casillas, and J. W. Ferguson, 2006. Ocean Conditions and Salmon Survival in the Northern California Current, Web Document. http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divsions/fed/ecosysrep.pdf
Hátún, H., M.R. Payne, G. Beaugrand, P.C. Reid, A.B. Sand?, H. Drange, B. Hansen, J.A. Jacobsen, D. Bloch, 2009: Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales, Progress in Oceanography, 80, 149-162. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2009.03.001
Ebbesmeyer, C.C., Dr.Cayan, D.R. McLain, F.H. Nichols, D.H. Peterson and K.T. Redmond, 1991: 1976 step in the Pacific climate: forty environmental changes between 1968-75 and 1977-1984. In: Proc. 7th Ann. Pacific Climate Workshop, California Dept of Water Resources, Interagency Ecol. Stud. Prog. Report 26.
Overland, J., S. Rodionov, S. Minobe and N. Bond, 2008: North Pacific Regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions. Progress in Oceanography, 77, 92-102. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2008.03.016
Overland, J. E., J.M. Adams, H.O. Mofjeld, 2000: Chaos in the North Pacific: spatial modes and temporal irregularity, Progress in Oceanography, 47, 337-354. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00041-0
Collie, J.S., K. Richardson, J. H. Steele, 2004: Regime shifts: can ecological theory illuminate the mechanisms?, Progress in Oceanography, 60, 281-302. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.013
Kim, H-J, and A.J. Miller, 2007. Did the Thermocline Deepen in the California Currentafter the 1976/77 Climate Regime shift?, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37, 1733-1739. doi:10.1175/JPO3058.1
Aebisher, N. J, Coulson, J. C., & Colebrook, J. M. (1990). Parallel long-term trendsacross four marine trophic levels and weather, Nature, 347, 753-755. doi:10.1038/347753a0
Schneider, N, and B. D. Cornuelle, 2005: The Forcing Of The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal Of Climate, Vol 18, 4355-4373. doi:10.1175/JCLI3527.1
Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace and R.C. Francis, June 1997: A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 78, 1069-1079. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078 2.0.CO;2
Minobe, S., & Mantua, N. (1999). Interdecadal modulation of interannual atmospheric and oceanic variability over the North Pacific. Progress in Oceanography, 43, 163-192. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(99)00008-7
Chao, Y; M. Ghil and J.C. McWilliams, 2000: Pacific Interdecadal Variability in This Century’s Sea Surface Temperatures, Geophys Res Letters, 27, 2261-2264. doi:10.1029/1999GL011324
Hare, S. R., & Mantua, N. J. (2000). Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography, 47, 103-145. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1
McFarlane, G.A., J.A. King, R.J. Beamish, 2000: Have there been recent changes in climate? Ask the fish, Progress in Oceanography 47, 147-169. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00034-3
McPhaden, M.J., and D. Zhang, 2004: Pacific Ocean Circulation Rebounds, Geophys Res Letters, 31, L18301. doi:10.1029/2004GL020727
McGowan, J.A., M.J. Cayan, L.M. Dorman, 1998: Climate-Ocean Variability and Ecosystem Response in the Northeast Pacific, Science, 281, 210-217. doi:10.1126/science.281.5374.210
Miller, A.J. and N. Schneider, 2000: Interdecadal climate regime dynamics in the North Pacific Ocean: theories, observations and ecosystem impacts. Progress in Oceanography, 47, 355-379. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00044-6
Minobe and Shoshiro, 1997: A 50-70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(6), 683-686.
[33] Minobe and Shoshiro, 1999: Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecal climate oscillation over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26(7), 855-858.
Stevens, C., S. Levitus, J. Antonov and T.P. Boyer, 2001: On the Pacific Ocean Regime Shift, Geophys Res Letters, 28, 3721-3724. doi:10.1029/2000GL012813
Minobe and Shoshiro, 2002: Interannual to interdecadal changes in the Bering Sea and concurrent 1998/99 changes over the North Pacific, Progress in Oceanography, 55, 45-64. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(02)00069-1
McFarlane, G.A, R.J. Beamish, 2001: The re-occurrence of sardines off British Columbia characterises the dynamic nature of regimes, Progress in Oceanography, 49, 151-165. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00020-9
Beamish, R.J., A.J. Benson, R.M. Sweeting, C.M. Nevelle, 2004: Regimes and the history of the major fisheries off Canada’s west coast, Progress in Oceanography, 60, 355-385. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.009
Beamish, R.J., R.M. Sweeting and C.M. Nevellie: 2004. Improvement of Juvenile Pacific Salmon Production in a Regional Ecosystem after the 1998 Climatic Regime shift, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 133: 1163-1175. doi:10.1577/T03-170.1
Beamish,R.J, J. T. Schnute, A. J. Cass, C. M. Neville, and R. M. Sweeting, 2004: The Influence of Climate on the Stock and Recruitment of Pink and Sockeye Salmon from the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 133:1396-1412. doi:10.1577/T03-221.1
Alheit, J., and M. Niquen, 2004: Regime shifts in the Humboldt Current ecosystem, Progress in Oceanography, 60, 201-222. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.006
Bolt, Jennifer (ed), 2005: Fisheries and the Environment: Ecosystem Indicators of the North Pacific and Their Implications for the North Pacific and Their Implications for Stock Assessment, Proceedings of the First Annual Meeting of the National Marine Fisheries Service’s Ecological Indicators Research Program, Alaskan Fisheries Service Center (AFSC) Processed Report 2005-04, pgs 103.
Taguchi, B., S-P Xie, H. Mitsudera, A. Kubokawa, 2005: Response of the Kuroshio Extension to Rossby Waves Associated with the 1970s Climate Regime Shift in a High-Resolution Ocean Model, Journal of Climate, 18, 2979-2995. doi:10.1175/JCLI3449.1
Beaugrand, G., 2004: The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences, Progress in Oceanography 60, 245-262. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.018
Brodeur R.D., M. B. Decker, L. Ciannelli, J. E. Purcell, N. A. Bond, P. J. Stabeno, E. Acuna, G. L. Hunt Jr., 2008: Rise and fall of jellyfish in the eastern Bering Sea in relation to climate regime shifts, Progress in Oceanography 77, 103-111. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2008.03.017
Chiba, S., M. N. Aita, K. Tadokoro, T. Saino, H. Sugisaki, K. Nakata, 2008: From climate regime shifts to lower-trophic level phenology: Synthesis of recent progress in retrospective studies of the western North Pacific, Progress in Oceanography, 77, 112-126. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2008.03.004
Conners M.E., A.B. Hollowed, E. Brown, 2002: Retrospective analysis of Bering Sea bottom trawl surveys: regime shift and ecosystem reorganization, Progress in Oceanography, 55, 209-222. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(02)00079-4
Drinkwater, K.F., 2006: The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic, Progress in Oceanography, 68, 134-151.
Sugimoto, T., S. Kimura, K. Tadokoro, 2001: Impact of El Nino events and climate regime shift on living resources in the western North Pacific, Progress in Oceanography 49, 113-127. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00018-0
Hollowed, A.B., S. R. Hare, W. S. Wooster, 2001: Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production, Progress in Oceanography, 49, 257-282. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00026-X
Rebstock, G.A., and Y. S. Kang, 2003: A comparison of three marine ecosystems surrounding the Korean peninsula: Responses to climate change, Progress in Oceanography 59, 357-379. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2003.10.002
Seo, H., S. Kim, K. Seong, S. Kang, 2006: Variability in scale growth rates of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in relation to climate changes in the late 1980s, Progress in Oceanography 68, 205-216.
Suga, T., A. Kato, K. Hanawa, 2000: North Pacific Tropical Water: its climatology and temporal changes associated with the climate regime shift in the 1970s, Progress in Oceanography 47, 223-256. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00037-9
Yasunaka, S., Hanawa, K., 2002. Regime shifts found in the northern hemisphere SST field. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 80, 119-135. doi:10.2151/jmsj.80.119
Wong, C.S., Liusen Xie, W. W. Hsieh, 2007: Variations in nutrients, carbon and other hydrographic parameters related to the 1976/77 and 1988/89 regime shifts in the sub- arctic Northeast Pacific, Progress in Oceanography, 75, 326-342. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2007.08.002
Wooster, W.S., C. I. Zhang, 2004: Regime shifts in the North Pacific: early indications of the 1976-1977 event, Progress in Oceanography, 60, 183-200. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.005
Zhang, C.I., J. B. Lee b, Y. I. Seo a, S. C. Yoon, S. Kim: 2004: Variations in the abundance of fisheries resources and ecosystem structure in the Japan/East Sea, Progress in Oceanography, 61, 245-265. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2004.06.009
Baines, P.G. and C.K. Folland, 2007: Evidence for a Rapid Global Climate Shift across the Late 1960s, Journal of Climate, 20, 2721-2744. doi:10.1175/JCLI4177.1
Frauenfeld, O.W., R.E. Davis, M.E. Mann, 2005: A Distinctly Interdecadal Signal of Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Journal of Climate, 18, 1709-1718. doi:10.1175/JCLI3367.1
Miller, A.J., Daniel R. Cayan, Tim P. Barnett, Nicholas E. Graham and Josef M. Oberhuber, 1994: The 1976-77 Climate Shift of the Pacific Ocean, Oceanography, 7, No. 1, 21-26
Wu, L., D. E. Lee and Z. Liu, 2005: The 1976/77 North Pacific Climate Regime Shift: The Role of Subtropical Ocean Adjustment and Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Feedbacks, Journal of Climate, 18, 5125-5140. doi:10.1175/JCLI3583.1
Ruggerone, G.T., J.L. Nielsen, J. Bumgarner, 2007: Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955-2002, Deep-Sea Research II, 54, 2776-2793.
Ladd, C. and LuAnne Thompson, 2002: Decadal Variability of North Pacific Central Mode Water, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 32, 2870-2881. doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2002)032 2.0.CO;2
Wilderbuer, T.K., A.B. Hollowed, W.J. Ingraham, Jr., P.D. Spencer, M.E. Conners, N.A. Bond, G.E. Walters, 2002: Flatfish recruitment response to decadal climatic variability and ocean conditions in the eastern Bering Sea, Progress in Oceanography, 55, 235-247. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(02)00081-2
Tian, Y., H. Kidokoro, T. Watanabe, 2006: Long-term changes in the fish community structure from the Tsushima warm current region of the Japan/East Sea with an emphasis on the impacts of fishing and climate regime shift over the last four decades, Progress in Oceanography, 68, 217-237.