Projection of Future Climate over the Koshi River Basin Based on CMIP5 GCMs

Abstract

This paper analyses the climate projections over the Koshi river basin obtained by applying the delta method to eight CMIP5 GCMs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The GCMs were selected to cover the full envelope of possible future ranges from dry and cold to wet and warm projections. The selected coarse resolution GCM outputs were statistically downscaled to the resolution of the historical climate datasets. The scenarios were developed based on the anomaly between the present reference period (1961-1990) and the future period (2021-2050) to generate transient climate change scenarios for the eight GCMs. The analyses were carried out for the whole basin and three physiographic zones: the trans-Himalaya, high-Himalaya and middle mountains, and southern plains. Future projections show a 14% increase in rainfall during the summer monsoon season by 2050. The increase in rainfall is higher over the mountains than the plains. The meagre amount of rainfall in the winter season is projected to further decrease over both the mountain and southern plains areas of the basin for both RCPs. The basin is likely to experience warming throughout the year, although the increase in winter is likely to be higher. The highest increase in temperature is projected to be over the high Himalayan and middle mountain area, with lower increases over the trans-Himalayan and southern plains areas.