Using a newly reported Pacific sea surface temperature data set, we extend a prior study that assigned El Ni ñ o episodes to distinct sequences. Within these sequences the episodes are phase-locked to subharmonics of the annual solar irradiance cycle having two- or three-year periodicity. There are 40 El Ni ñ o episodes occurring since 1872, each found within one of eighteen such sequences. Our list includes all previously reported events. Three El Ni ñ o episodes have already been observed in boreal winters of 2009, 2012 and 2015, illustrating a sequence of 3-year intervals that began in 2008. If the climate system remains in this state, the next El Ni ñ o is likely to occur in boreal winter of 2018.
Quinn, W.H., Neal, V.T. and Antonez de Mayolo, S.E. (1987) El Niño Occurrences over the Past Four and a Half Centuries. Journal of Geophysical Research, 92, 14449–14461. https://doi.org/10.1029/JC092iC13p14449
Barnston, A.C., Chelliah, M. and Goldenberg, S.B. (1997) Documentation of a Highly ENSO-Related SST Region in the Equatorial Pacific. Atmosphere-Ocean, 35, 367-383. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1997.9649597
Giese, B. and Ray, S. (2011) El Niño Variability in Simple Ocean Assimilation (SODA) 1871-2008. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, C02024.
Ray, S. (2011) El Niño Southern Oscillation Variability from 1871-2009. Doctoral Thesis, Texas A&M University.
Yu, J.-Y. and Kim, S.T. (2013) Identifying the Types of Major El Niño Events since 1870. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 2105-2112. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3575
Stein, K.A., Timmermann, A. and Schneider, N. (2011) Phase Synchronization of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation with the Annual Cycle. Physical Review Letters, 107, 128501. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.107.128501
Newman, M., Shin, S.-I. and Alexander, M.A. (2011) Natural Variation in ENSO Flavors. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L14705. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047658
Kao, H.-Y. and Yu, J.-Y. (2009) Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO. Journal of Climate, 22, 615-632. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2309.1
Kug, J.-S., Jin, F.-F. and An, S.-I. (2009) Two Types of El Niño Events: Cold Tongue El Niño and Warm Pool El Niño. Journal of Climate, 22, 1499-1514. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2624.1
Ashok, K., Behera, S.K., Rao, S.A., Weng, H. and Yamagata, T. (2007) El Niño Modoki and Its Possible Teleconnections. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, C11007. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003798
Trenberth, K.E. and Stepaniak, D.P. (2001) Indices of El Niño Evolution. Journal of Climate, 14, 1697-1701. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014 2.0.CO;2
Johnson, N.C. (2013) How Many ENSO Flavors Can We Distinguish? Journal of Climate, 26, 4816-4827. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00649.1
Bjerknes, J.A.B. (1969) Analysis of the Rhythmic Variations of the Hadley Circulation over the Pacific during 1963-67. Technical Report, ONR Contract No. N0014-69-A-0200-4044 NR 083-287.
Rasmusson, E.M. and Carpenter, T.H. (1982) Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Wind Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Monthly Weather Review, 110, 354-384. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110 2.0.CO;2
Rasmusson, E.M., Wang, X. and Ropelewski, C. (1990) The Biennial Component of ENSO Variability. Journal of Marine Systems, 1, 71-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0924-7963(90)90153-2
Gu, D. and Philander, S.G.H. (1995) Secular Changes of Annual and Interannual Variability in the Tropics during the Past Century. Journal of Climate, 8, 864-876. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008 2.0.CO;2
Douglass, D.H. (2011) The Pacific Sea Surface Temperature. Physics Letters A, 376, 128-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2011.10.042
Douglass, D.H. (2013) Phase-Locked States and Abrupt Shifts in Pacific Climate Indices. Physics Letters A, 377, 1749-1755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2013.04.053
Douglass, D.H. (2010) El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Magnitudes and Asymmetry. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D15111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013508
Douglass, D.H. and Knox, R.S. (2015) The Sun Is the Climate Pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures. Physics Letters A, 379, 823-829. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2014.10.057
Douglass, D.H. and Knox, R.S. (2015) The Sun Is the Climate Pacemaker II. Global Ocean Temperatures. Physics Letters A, 379, 830-834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2014.10.058
Cane, M.A. and Zebiak, S.E. (1985) A Theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Science, 228, 1085-1087. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.228.4703.1085
Jin, F.-F., Neelin, J.D. and Ghil, M. (1994) ENSO on the Devil’s Staircase: Annual Subharmonic Steps to Chaos. Science, 264, 70-72. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.264.5155.70
Tziperman, E., Stone, L., Cane, M.A. and Jarosh, H. (1994) El Niño Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillator. Science, 264, 72-74. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.264.5155.72
Chang, P., Ji, L., Wang, B. and Li, T. (1995) Interactions between the Seasonal Cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in an Intermediate Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 52, 2353-2372. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052 2.0.CO;2
Douglass, D.H. (2010) Topology of Earth’s Climate Indices and Phase-Locked States. Physics Letters A, 374, 4164-4168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2010.08.025
Towsley, A., Pakianathan, J. and Douglass, D.H. (2011) Correlation Angles and Inner Products: Application to a Problem from Physics. ISRN Applied Mathematics, 2011, Article ID: 323864. https://doi.org/10.5402/2011/323864
Douglass, D.H. (2011) Separation of a Signal of Interest from the Seasonal Effect in Geophysical Data: I. The El Niño/La Niña Phenomenon. International Journal of Geosciences, 2, 414-419. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2011.24045
Stoker, J.J. (1950) Nonlinear Vibrations. Interscience Publishers, New York.
Stein, K., Timmermann, A. and Schneider, N. (2011) Phase Synchronization of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation with the Annual Cycle. Physical Review Letters, 107, Article ID: 128501. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.107.128501
Stein, K., Timmermann, A., Schneider, N., Jin, F.-F. and Stuecker, M.F. (2014) ENSO Seasonal Synchronization Theory. Journal of Climate, 27, 5285-5310. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00525.1
Wang, G., Swanson, K.L. and Tsonis, A.A. (2009) The Pacemaker of Major Climate Shifts. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07708. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl036874