Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Potential Release of Aedes aegypti Carrying Wolbachia Strains for Dengue Control in Burkina Faso

Abstract

One of the most promising vector control strategies for controlling dengue fever is the stable introduction of the obligate intracellular Wolbachia bacteria strain into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. This method reduces the mosquito’s ability to transmit dengue through reproductive strategies associated with Wolbachia infection, such as parthenogenesis, male elimination or feminization, sex ratio distortions and cytoplasmic incompatibility. Expert knowledge and a risk assessment framework were used to identify the risks associated with the release of Wolbachia -bearing mosquitoes. Then, consultations with individual participants were organized and a Bayesian network (BN) was developed to capture the relationship between the hazards as well as the likelihood of these adverse events occurring. Finally, risk was calculated from the probability and consequence estimates obtained from our Burkina Faso participants, using a questionnaire based on the identified risks. Our “Cause More Harm” study yielded 46.15% negligible risk, 44.23% very low risk and 9.62% low risk. The “socio-cultural change” parameter had the greatest influence, with the perception that the dissemination project would be poorly received by the local population. This parameter alone accounted for 80% of the most significant risks. This explains the fact that hazard RA 49 “negative messages in social media” is ranked as the highest individual risk (although the risk is low) with a calculated risk of 0.261. The risk assessment was designed to integrate the interdependent complexity of hazards likely to affect the dissemination of technology in the environment. It represents an important implementation phase in the success of this innovative research, introducing a new technology to combat the transmission of dengue fever.