Second-Order MaxEnt Predictive Modelling Methodology. III: Illustrative Application to a Reactor Physics Benchmark

Abstract

This work illustrates the innovative results obtained by applying the recen tly developed the 2 nd -order predictive modeling methodology called “2 nd - BERRU-PM”, where the acronym BERRU denotes “best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties” and “PM” denotes “predictive modeling.” The physical system selected for this illustrative application is a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark. This benchmark is modeled using the neutron transport Boltzmann equation (involving 21,976 uncertain parameters), the solution of which is representative of “large-scale computations.” The results obtained in this work confirm the fact that the 2 nd -BERRU-PM methodology predicts best-estimate results that fall in between the corresponding computed and measured values, while reducing the predicted standard deviations of the predicted results to values smaller than either the experimentally measured or the computed values of the respective standard deviations. The obtained results also indicate that 2 nd -order response sensitivities must always be included to quantify the need for including (or not) the 3 rd - and/or 4 th -order sensitivities. When the parameters are known with high precision, the contributions of the higher-order sensitivities diminish with increasing order, so that the inclusion of the 1 st - and 2 nd -order sensitivities may suffice for obtaining accurate predicted best- estimate response values and best-estimate standard deviations. On the other hand, when the parameters’ standard deviations are sufficiently large to approach (or be outside of) the radius of convergence of the multivariate Taylor-series which represents the response in the phase-space of model parameters, the contributions stemming from the 3 rd - and even 4 th -order sensitivities are necessary to ensure consistency between the computed and measured response. In such cases, the use of only the 1 st -order sensitivities erroneously indicates that the computed results are inconsistent with the respective measured response. Ongoing research aims at extending the 2 nd -BERRU-PM methodology to fourth-order, thus enabling the computation of third-order response correlations (skewness) and fourth-order response correlations (kurtosis).