Under the “Double Carbon” Target Study on the Decoupling Effect and Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Carbon Emissions in China<br/>—Based on Decoupling Theory and EKC Curve Theory

Abstract

Firstly, the decoupling effect of national per capita GDP and carbon emissions was analyzed based on Tapio decoupling model. Secondly, based on the provincial panel data, the spatial Dubin model was established to conduct empirical research on the impact of regional economic development on carbon emissions, aiming to clarify the influencing factors and temporal and spatial characteristics of Carbon emissions in China, and provide theoretical basis and reference for the realization of “double carbon” target. Finally, the following conclusions were drawn: 1) The decoupling state of national per capita GDP and carbon emissions is mainly weak decoupling, and the decoupling is ideal, at the same time, the emergence of strong decoupling shows that economic development and carbon emission reduction can coexist. 2) The carbon emissions of provinces (cities, autonomous regions) have spatial autocorrelation; Per capita GDP has a significant impact on carbon emissions, and its direct and indirect effects show inverted N-shaped and N-shaped curves respectively. 3) Both FDI and R&D drive carbon emissions negatively, while urbanization and electricity consumption drive carbon emissions positively, with the spatial spillover effects of FDI and urbanization being statistically insignificant. In addition, the direct and indirect effects of industrial structure and population density are opposite. Based on the above conclusions, it is recommended that all regions should strengthen joint prevention and control in the process of carbon emission reduction, promote close cooperation in regional energy conservation and emission reduction, develop a low-carbon economy, and take multiple measures to help achieve the “double carbon” target successfully.