Causal Impact Analysis of the Implementation of Single Window Systems: The Case of Ghana

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of the Integrated Customs Management System (ICUMS) on the time required to generate a Delivery Order (DO) in Ghana’s cargo clearance process, addressing a gap in quantitative evaluations of Single Window (SW) systems by focusing on this specific aspect of trade facilitation. Utilizing Causal Impact Analysis. The research analyzed 2026 DOs from July 2020 to July 2023 through Bayesian Structural Time Series models, comparing the DO creation time before and after ICUMS implementation using R statistical software. The findings reveal a reduction in DO creation time from 11 to 9.22 days following the implementation of ICUMS; however, this decrease is not statistically significant, with considerable uncertainty in the estimated impact. The relative effect analysis and p -value suggest that this observed increase may be attributable to random variation rather than the impact of the intervention. The study recommends the adoption of more robust trade facilitation strategies aimed at addressing bottlenecks in DO issuance and advocates for qualitative research to better understand operational challenges and pinpoint areas for improvement. The findings challenge the widely touted benefits of SW systems and call for a reassessment of their role in trade facilitation. This research contributes to the limited quantitative literature on the impact of SW systems, particularly through the lens of DO creation time, an essential but often overlooked element of trade facilitation.