This research assesses the probable decline of the U.S. dollar by examining economic, geopolitical, and technical variables. The research used a mixed-methods approach to investigate six hypotheses related to the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, geopolitical changes, economic indicators, investor confidence, bond market dynamics, and cryptocurrency integration. A quantitative study including 128 financial experts and qualitative insights from 12 interviews indicates increasing debt levels, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical challenges—especially from BRICS nations—endanger the dollar’s worldwide supremacy. The growing acceptance of digital currencies, including Bitcoin and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), is transforming conventional financial institutions and progressively undermining the dollar. The results underscore the significance of fiscal changes, geopolitical strategy, and technological adaptability in preserving the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency. The implications for politicians, investors, and financial institutions are examined, emphasizing the critical necessity to confront these difficulties to maintain global economic stability.
Afolabi, J. A., & Olanrewaju, B. U. (2023). Cryptocurrencies and Central Banks’ Monetary Policy Roles. International Journal of Electronic Finance, 12, 97-116. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijef.2023.129912
Aizenman, J. (2019). A Modern Reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming’s Trilemma. Economic Modelling, 81, 444-454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.03.008
Ali, A., & Audi, M. (2023). Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on the Current Account Balance in Developing Economies: A Panel Data Approach. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 18, 92-107. https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v18.2(80).04
Ashfaq, M., Hasan, R., & Merčon, J. (2023). Central Bank Digital Currencies and the Global Financial System: Theory and Practice . De Gruyter.
Auer, R., Cornelli, G., & Frost, J. (2023). Rise of the Central Bank Digital Currencies. International Journal of Central Banking, 19, 185-214.
Baur, D. G., & Dimpfl, T. (2021). The Volatility of Bitcoin and Its Role as a Medium of Exchange and a Store of Value. Empirical Economics, 61, 2663-2683. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01990-5
Bratis, T., Laopodis, N. T., & Kouretas, G. P. (2020). Systemic Risk and Financial Stability Dynamics during the Eurozone Debt Crisis. Journal of Financial Stability, 47, 100723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2020.100723
Brown, B., & Pringle, R. (2022). A Guide to Good Money: Beyond the Illusions of Asset Inflation (1st ed.). Palgrave Macmillan.
Caballero, R. J., Farhi, E., & Gourinchas, P. (2017). The Safe Assets Shortage Conundrum. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31, 29-46. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.3.29
Chowdhury, M. A. F., Prince, E. R., Shoyeb, M., & Abdullah, M. (2024). The Threshold Effect of Institutional Quality on Sovereign Debt and Economic Stability. Journal of Policy Modeling, 46, 39-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.001
Chuen, D. L. K., & Teo, E. (2021). The New Money: The Utility of Cryptocurrencies and the Need for a New Monetary Policy. In Disintermediation Economics (pp. 111-172). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65781-9_7
Comunale, M. (2022). A Panel VAR Analysis of Macro-Financial Imbalances in the EU. Journal of International Money and Finance, 121, Article 102511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102511
Cunha, P. R., Melo, P., & Sebastião, H. (2021). From Bitcoin to Central Bank Digital Currencies: Making Sense of the Digital Money Revolution. Future Internet, 13, Article 165. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi13070165
Das, M. M., Griffoli, T. M., Nakamura, F., Otten, M. J., Soderberg, G., Sole, M. J., & Tan, B. (2023). Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies for Monetary Policy Transmission (Note 2023/010) . IMF.
De Lucchi, J. M., & Vernengo, M. (2023). The New Foreign Debt Trap in Argentina. In Central Banks and Monetary Regimes in Emerging Countries (pp. 127-146). Edward Elgar.
Dey, S. R., & Tareque, M. (2020). External Debt and Growth: Role of Stable Macroeconomic Policies. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25, 185-204. https://doi.org/10.1108/jefas-05-2019-0069
Dionysopoulos, L., Marra, M., & Urquhart, A. (2023). Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Critical Review. International Review of Financial Analysis, 91, Article 103031.
Eichengreen, B. (2011). Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar . Oxford University Press.
Eichengreen, B. (2023). International Currency: Myths and Realities. The Journal of European Economic History, 52, 9-41.
Eichengreen, B. (2024). The BRICS currency charade. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brics-kazan-summit-futile-common-currency-effort-by-barry-eichengreen-2024-11
Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2005). The Pain of Original Sin. In Other People ’ s Money (pp. 13-47). University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226194578.003.0002
Eichengreen, B., Mehl, A., & Chitu, L. (2018). How Global Currencies Work . Princeton University Press.
Fantacci, L., & Gobbi, L. (2024). Stablecoins, Central Bank Digital Currencies and US Dollar Hegemony. Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, 14, 173-200. https://doi.org/10.1515/ael-2020-0053
Gourinchas, P. (2021). The Dollar Hegemon? Evidence and Implications for Policymakers. In The Asian Monetary Policy Forum (pp. 264-300). World Scientific. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811238628_0007
Guеchаti, I., & Chаmi, M. (2022). Lebanon: Economic and Financial Crises. Revue Française d’Economie et de Gestion, 3, 276-291.
Han, B. (2024). Original Sin Dissipation and Currency Exposures in Emerging Markets. Open Economies Review, 36, 281-327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-024-09758-5
Hui, H. C. (2022). The Long-Run Effects of Geopolitical Risk on Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from Some ASEAN Countries. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 17, 1543-1564. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-08-2020-1001
Ilyinsky, A. I., & Magamedov, A. S. (2023). The Changing Role of the US Dollar in the Global Monetary System of a Multipolar World. Review of Business and Economics Studies, 11, 6-14. https://doi.org/10.26794/2308-944x-2023-11-2-6-14
International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2023). Lebanon: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2023 Article IV Mission. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/03/23/lebanon-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2023-article-iv-mission
Kayani, U., & Hasan, F. (2024). Unveiling Cryptocurrency Impact on Financial Markets and Traditional Banking Systems: Lessons for Sustainable Blockchain and Interdisciplinary Collaborations. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17, 58. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17020058
Khalife, D., Elia, R., & Yammine, C. (2023). Lebanese Economic Crisis: Causes and Solutions. Journal of Law and Sustainable Development, 11, e1221.
Khan, M. Z., Ali, Y., Sultan, H. B., Hasan, M., & Baloch, S. (2020). Future of Currency: A Comparison between Traditional, Digital Fiat and Cryptocurrency Exchange Mediums. International Journal of Blockchains and Cryptocurrencies, 1, 206-224. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijbc.2020.109003
Kiley, M. T. (2021). What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises? Journal of International Money and Finance, 111, Article 102316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102316
Kirkby, R. (2018). Cryptocurrencies and Digital Fiat Currencies. Australian Economic Re view, 51, 527-539. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12307
Lee, B. T. F., & Sims, J. P. (2024). The BRICS+ Expansion, Global Trade Dynamics, and the Dedollarization Phenomenon. Unnes Political Science Journal, 8, 19-29. https://doi.org/10.15294/upsj.v8i1.4432
Margulescu, S., & Margulescu, D. (2021a). Cryptocurrencies versus Traditional Fiat Currencies under Conditions of Economic Uncertainty. Journal of Financial Studies and Research, 10, 115-132.
Margulescu, S., & Margulescu, E. (2021b). Traditional Cryptocurrencies and Fiat-Backed Digital Currencies. Global Economic Observer, 9, 116-123.
Maruf, R. (2024). A Gold Bar Is Now Worth $1 Million. CNN . https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/20/business/gold-bar-one-million-dollars
Mohammed, M. A., De-Pablos-Heredero, C., & Montes Botella, J. L. (2023). Exploring the Factors Affecting Countries’ Adoption of Blockchain-Enabled Central Bank Digital Currencies. Future Internet, 15, 321. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi15100321
Mundell, R. A. (1963). Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29, 475-485. https://doi.org/10.2307/139336
Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System . https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
Naveenraj, X., & Ramya, J. (2023). Digital Currencies and Economic Instability. In Emerging Insights on Cryptocurrencies (pp. 122-134). IGI Global.
NguyenHuu, T., & Örsal, D. K. (2024). Geopolitical Risks and Financial Stress in Emerging Economies. The World Economy, 47, 217-237. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13529
Niemann, S., & Pichler, P. (2020). Optimal Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Debt Crises. Review of Economic Dynamics, 37, 234-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.02.003
Obstfeld, M., & Zhou, G. (2022). Sovereign Debt and Currency Stability in Emerging Markets. IMF Working Paper WP/22/113.
Ozili, P. K. (2023). Central Bank Digital Currency Research around the World: A Review of Literature. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 26, 215-226. https://doi.org/10.1108/jmlc-11-2021-0126
Park, D., Ramayandi, A., & Tian, S. (2022). Debt Buildup and Currency Vulnerability: Evidence from Global Markets. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58, 2017-2035. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2021.1949982
Prates, D. (2020). Beyond Modern Money Theory: A Post-Keynesian Approach to the Currency Hierarchy, Monetary Sovereignty, and Policy Space. Review of Keynesian Economics, 8, 494-511. https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2020.04.03
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press.
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100, 573-578. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.573
Reinhart, C. M., Reinhart, V., & Rogoff, K. (2015). Dealing with Debt. Journal of International Economics, 96, S43-S55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.11.001
Saaida, M. B. (2023). The BRICS’ Move Away from US Dollar. Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development, 10, 35-39.
Santarcangelo, J. E., & Padín, J. M. (2023). The Political Economy of Debt in Argentina. In Imperialism and the Political Economy of Global South’s Debt (pp. 3-21). Emerald Publishing.
Ssaharti, M. (2022). The Impact of Crypto Currencies on the Economy and the Financial Industry. Journal of Advances in Humanities Research, 1, 60-69. https://doi.org/10.56868/jadhur.v1i1.11
Triffin, R. (1960). Gold and the Dollar Crisis: The Future of Convertibility . Yale University Press.
US Debt Clock.org (2024). Real-Time U.S. National Debt Data. https://www.usdebtclock.org
Wray, L. R. (2024). Inflation and Sovereign Currencies. In Modern Money Theory (pp. 275-303). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-47884-0_9
Yermack, D. (2024). How Bitcoin Could Affect the Stability of Fiat Currencies. Journal of Financial Economics, 147(2), 289-310.