The construction projects’ dynamic and interconnected nature requires a comprehensive understanding of complexity during pre-construction. Traditional tools such as Gantt charts, CPM, and PERT often overlook uncertainties. This study identifies 20 complexity factors through expert interviews and literature, categorising them into six groups. The Analytical Hierarchy Process evaluated the significance of different factors, establishing their corresponding weights to enhance adaptive project scheduling. A system dynamics (SD) model is developed and tested to evaluate the dynamic behaviour of identified complexity factors. The model simulates the impact of complexity on total project duration (TPD), revealing significant deviations from initial deterministic estimates. Data collection and analysis for reliability tests, including normality and Cronbach alpha, to validate the model’s components and expert feedback. Sensitivity analysis confirmed a positive relationship between complexity and project duration, with higher complexity levels resulting in increased TPD. This relationship highlights the inadequacy of static planning approaches and underscores the importance of addressing complexity dynamically. The study provides a framework for enhancing planning systems through system dynamics and recommends expanding the model to ensure broader applicability in diverse construction projects.
Sanchez, F., Bonjour, E., Micaelli, J. and Monticolo, D. (2020) An Approach Based on Bayesian Network for Improving Project Management Maturity: An Application to Reduce Cost Overrun Risks in Engineering Projects. Computers in Industry , 119, Article 103227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compind.2020.103227
Koulinas, G., Xanthopoulos, A., Tsilipiras, T. and Koulouriotis, D. (2020) Schedule Delay Risk Analysis in Construction Projects with a Simulation-Based Expert System. Buildings , 10, Article 134. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings10080134
Guo, K. and Zhang, L. (2022) Multi-Objective Optimization for Improved Project Management: Current Status and Future Directions. Automation in Construction , 139, Article 104256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2022.104256
Hiebl, M.R.W. (2021) Sample Selection in Systematic Literature Reviews of Management Research. Organizational Research Methods , 26, 229-261. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428120986851
Lockyer, G. (1969) An Introduction to Critical Path Analysis. Pitman and Sons.
Kelley, J.E. (1961) Critical-Path Planning and Scheduling: Mathematical Basis. Operations Research , 9, 296-320. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.9.3.296
Andersen, E.S. (1996) Warning: Activity Planning Is Hazardous to Your Project’s Health! International Journal of Project Management , 14, 89-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(95)00056-9
Charnes, A. and Cooper, W.W. (1963) Deterministic Equivalents for Optimizing and Satisficing under Chance Constraints. Operations Research , 11, 18-39. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.11.1.18
Elmaghraby, S.E. (1967) On the Expected Duration of PERT Type Networks. Management Science , 13, 299-306. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.13.5.299
Kahraman, C., Gülbay, M. and Kabak, Ö. (2006). Applications of Fuzzy Sets in Industrial Engineering: A Topical Classification. In: Kahraman, C., Ed., Fuzzy Applications in Industrial Engineering , Springer, 1-55. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-33517-X_1
Chanas, S., Dubois, D. and Zielinski, P. (2002) On the Sure Criticality of Tasks in Activity Networks with Imprecise Durations. IEEE Transactions on Systems , Man and Cybernetics , Part B ( Cybernetics ), 32, 393-407. https://doi.org/10.1109/tsmcb.2002.1018760
Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D., et al . (2007) Global Sensitivity Analysis. The Primer. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470725184
Hall, N.G. and Posner, M.E. (2004) Sensitivity Analysis for Scheduling Problems. Journal of Scheduling , 7, 49-83. https://doi.org/10.1023/b:josh.0000013055.31639.f6
Herroelen, W. and Leus, R. (2004) Robust and Reactive Project Scheduling: A Review and Classification of Procedures. International Journal of Production Research , 42, 1599-1620. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207540310001638055
Moazeni, S., Coleman, T.F. and Li, Y. (2013) Regularized Robust Optimization: The Optimal Portfolio Execution Case. Computational Optimization and Applications , 55, 341-377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10589-012-9526-3
Freeman, R.J. (1960) A Stochastic Model for Determining the Size and Allocation of the Research Budget. IRE Transactions on Engineering Management , 7, 2-7. https://doi.org/10.1109/iret-em.1960.5007523
Collyer, S. and Warren, C.M.J. (2009) Project Management Approaches for Dynamic Environments. International Journal of Project Management , 27, 355-364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2008.04.004
Senge, P. (1990) The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. Bantam Doubleday Dell Publishing Group.
Helbing, D. (2013) Globally Networked Risks and How to Respond. Nature , 497, 51-59. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12047
Gao, J. (2013) Complex Systems and Emergence: How Theory Meets Reality. Advances in Mechanics , 43, 359-389. https://doi.org/10.6052/1000-0992-13-046
Baccarini, D. (1996) The Concept of Project Complexity—A Review. International Journal of Project Management , 14, 201-204. https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(95)00093-3
Williams, T.M. (1999) The Need for New Paradigms for Complex Projects. International Journal of Project Management , 17, 269-273. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0263-7863(98)00047-7
Gidado, K.I. (1996) Project Complexity: The Focal Point of Construction Production Planning. Construction Management and Economics , 14, 213-225. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461996373476
Vidal, L. and Marle, F. (2008) Understanding Project Complexity: Implications on Project Management. Kybernetes , 37, 1094-1110. https://doi.org/10.1108/03684920810884928
Xia, B. and Chan, A.P.C. (2012) Measuring Complexity for Building Projects: A Delphi Study. Engineering , Construction and Architectural Management , 19, 7-24. https://doi.org/10.1108/09699981211192544
Luo, L., He, Q., Jaselskis, E.J. and Xie, J. (2017) Construction Project Complexity: Research Trends and Implications. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management , 143. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001306
Dao, B., Kermanshachi, S., Shane, J., Anderson, S. and Hare, E. (2016) Identifying and Measuring Project Complexity. Procedia Engineering , 145, 476-482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.024
Ma, L. and Fu, H. (2020) Exploring the Influence of Project Complexity on the Mega Construction Project Success: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) Method. Engineering , Construction and Architectural Management , 27, 2429-2449. https://doi.org/10.1108/ecam-12-2019-0679
Remington, K. and Pollack, J. (2008) Complex Projects: What Are They and How Can We Manage Them More Effectively? Proceedings of the 2008 AIPM Project Management Conference , Canberra, 1 Jan 2008, 1-10.
Parekh, R. (2024) Automating the Design Process for Smart Building Technologies. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews , 23, 1213-1234. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2024.23.2.2461
Stoop, P.P.M. and Wiers, V.C.S. (1996) The Complexity of Scheduling in Practice. International Journal of Operations & Production Management , 16, 37-53. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443579610130682
Nosakhare, U.H. and Bright, A.F. (2017) Evaluation of Techniques for Univariate Normality Test Using Monte Carlo Simulation. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics , 6, 51-61.
Easa, N.F. and Bazzi, A.M. (2021) COVID-19 and Lack of Socialization: Does Service Innovation Become an Imperative for Universities? International Journal of Disruptive Innovation in Government , 1, 82-103. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijdig-11-2020-0006
Hair, J.F., Hult, G.T.M., Ringle, C.M. and Sarstedt, M. (2017) A Primer on Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), 2 Edition, Sage Publications.
Wright, D.B. and Herrington, J.A. (2011) Problematic Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Skewness and Kurtosis. Behavior Research Methods , 43, 8-17. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-010-0044-x
Morgan, D. (1997). Focus Groups as Qualitative Research. SAGE Publications, Inc. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412984287
Curran, P.J., West, S.G. and Finch, J.F. (1996) The Robustness of Test Statistics to Nonnormality and Specification Error in Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Psychological Methods , 1, 16-29. https://doi.org/10.1037//1082-989x.1.1.16
Brown, J.D. (2002) The Cronbach Alpha Reliability Estimate. JALT Testing & Evaluation SIG Newsletter , 6, 17-18.
Heo, M., Kim, N. and Faith, M.S. (2015) Statistical Power as a Function of Cronbach Alpha of Instrument Questionnaire Items. BMC Medical Research Methodology , 15, Article No. 86. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-015-0070-6
Bujang, M.A., Omar, E.D. and Baharum, N.A. (2018) A Review on Sample Size Determination for Cronbach’s Alpha Test: A Simple Guide for Researchers. Malaysian Journal of Medical Sciences , 25, 85-99. https://doi.org/10.21315/mjms2018.25.6.9
Saaty, T.L. (2008) Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process. International Journal of Services Sciences , 1, 83-98. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijssci.2008.017590
Forrester, J.W. (1994) System Dynamics, Systems Thinking, and Soft OR. System Dynamics Review , 10, 245-256. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.4260100211
Pidd, M. (2010) Why Modelling and Model Use Matter. Journal of the Operational Research Society , 61, 14-24. https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.2009.141
Senge P.M. and Forrester, J.W. (1980) Tests for Building Confidence in System Dynamics Models. System Dynamics , TIMS Studies in Management Sciences , 14, 209-228.
Barlas, Y. (1989) Multiple Tests for Validation of System Dynamics Type of Simulation Models. European Journal of Operational Research , 42, 59-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(89)90059-3
Jaafari, A. (2003) Project Management in the Age of Complexity and Change. Project Management Journal , 34, 47-57. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697280303400407
Dangerfield, B., Green, S. and Austin, S. (2010) Understanding Construction Competitiveness: The Contribution of System Dynamics. Construction Innovation , 10, 408-420. https://doi.org/10.1108/14714171011083579
Coyle, G. (1998) The Practice of System Dynamics: Milestones, Lessons and Ideas from 30 Years Experience. System Dynamics Review , 14, 343-365. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(199824)14:4<343::aid-sdr156>3.0.co;2-d