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A Type of Combination Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Method and PLS
School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
School of Business, Anhui University, Hefei, China
School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
- 1 School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
- 2 School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
- 3 School of Business, Anhui University, Hefei, China
- 4 School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
American Journal of Operations Research·Volume 02 (2012)·Pages 467–472·Published 30 November 2012·DOI10.4236/ajor.2012.24055
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Abstract
This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.
KeywordsPLSTime Series MethodCombination Forecast MethodSales Forecasts
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