A Study in Multistage Decision Making for Odisha State Avionic Infrastructure Development

Abstract

Multistage decision making is either under certainty or uncertainty data conditions. Expected monetary values’ perfect information and monetary loss or gain at each stage of decision making are the research topics of a constrained decision making under risk. In the multistage decision making process, one stage’s decision interferes with the subsequent stage’s decision. In this paper, a simple study on decision making for creating Avionic infrastructure within the Odisha region is emphasized by using the mathematical logic tool on a case study problem. In this case study, the first stage D1 has two options, either construct or not construct new airports with utilizing the budgeted allot money. Each option’s outcome probability, conditional value and expected outcome value are determined by applying arithmetic and logical calculations to next two stages D2 and D3. The expected value and percentage of returns are mentioned in the decision trees designed in Section 3. The nodes of the decision tree are stages or chance nodes and the arc lines’ labels are mentioned from the appropriate expressions written in the decision tree and chance nodes table mentioned in Section 4.