Prediction of Potential Sorghum Suitability Distribution in China Based on Maxent Model

Abstract

It is increasingly relevant to study the effects of climate change on species habitats. Using a maximum entropy model, 22 environmental factors with significant effects on sorghum habitat distribution in China were selected to predict the potential habitat distribution of sorghum in China. The potential distribution of sorghum under baseline climate conditions and future climate conditions (2050s and 2070s) under two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were simulated, and the receiver operating curve under the accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating cu rve (AUC). The results showed that the maximum entropy model predicted the potential sorghum habitat distribution with high accuracy, with Bio2 (mo nthly mean diurnal temperature difference), Bio6 (minimum temperature in the coldest month), and Bio13 (rainfall in the wettest month) as the main climatic factors affecting sorghum distribution among the 22 environmental factors. Under the baseline climate conditions, potential sorghum habitats are mainly distributed in the southwest, central , and east China. Over time, the potential sorghum habitat expanded into northern and southern China, w ith significant additions and negligible decreases in potential sorghum habitat in the study area, and a significant increase in total area, with the RCP 8.5 scenario adding much more area than the RCP4.5 scenario.