Early Nutrient Diagnosis of Kentucky Bluegrass Combining Machine Learning and Compositional Methods

Abstract

Kentucky bluegrass ( Poa pratensis L.) is the most common perennial turfgrass species grown on playgrounds, municipal and residential lawn areas, and golf tees, fairways and roughs. Fertilization is the most efficient way to improve and maintain turfgrass aesthetic quality. Tissue diagnosis can guide fertilization, but tissue concentration ranges are biased by not taking into consideration nutrient inter-relationships, carryover effects and other key features. The centered log-ratio transformation reflects nutrient interactions in plants and avoids statistical biases. Machine learning (ML) models relate the target vari able to the key features ex ante , and can predict future events from prior knowledg e. The objective of his study was to predict turfgrass quality from k ey features and rank nutrients in the order of their limitations. The experimental setup comprised four N, three P, and four K rates applied on permanent plots during three consecutive years. Soils were a loam and an USGA sand. Eleven elements (N, S, P, K, Ca, Mg, B, Cu, Zn, Mn, Fe) were quantified in clippings c ollected during spring, summer and autumn every year. Turfgrass qualit y was categorized as target variable by color rating. Concentrations were centered log-ratioed ( clr ) partitioned into four quadrants in the confusion matrix generated by the xgboost ML model. The area under curve (AUC) and model accuracy were high to predict turfgrass color from the nutrient analyses of clippings collected in the preceding season, facilitating the seasonal adjustment of the fertilization regime to sustain high turfgrass quality. We provide a computational example to run the ML model and rank nutrients in the order of their limitations.