Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
Forecast of Maize Production in Henan Province
College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China
College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China
- 1 College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China
- 2 College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China
American Journal of Plant Sciences·Volume 09 (2018)·Pages 2276–2286·Published 11 October 2018·DOI10.4236/ajps.2018.911164
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Abstract
Considering the influence of meteorological factors on maize production, in order to improve the yield of maize in Henan Province, a grey combination model is constructed to predict the yield of maize in Henan Province. Firstly, the yield of maize in 2017 is obtained by GM (1, 1) model; secondly, the trend yield of maize is obtained by HP filter method, then the meteorological yield of maize is obtained, and the yield of maize reduction is determined according to the meteorological yield. Combined with Markov model, the maize yield reduction in various cities in Henan Province is forecasted. Finally, based on the reduction of production, policy recommendations are made for maize production in Henan Province.
KeywordsGrey System TheoryGM (11) ModelMarkov ModelHP Filter MethodMaize
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