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Estimation of Reproduction Numbers for the Period of the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in the Central African Republic
NEERLab, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Université de Bangui, Bangui, Central African Republic
Institut Pasteur Bangui Epidemiological Service, Rue Louis Pasteur (RCA), Bangui, Central African Republic
NEERLab, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- 1 NEERLab, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Université de Bangui, Bangui, Central African Republic
- 2 Institut Pasteur Bangui Epidemiological Service, Rue Louis Pasteur (RCA), Bangui, Central African Republic
- 3 NEERLab, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, USA
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Abstract
In this paper, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infection-asymptomatic-hospitalized-recovered (SEIAHR) model with parameters on retrospective social distancing and masking. We estimated the model parameters from information published on the World Health Organization (WHO) website. We found that the actual reproduction number R t varies over the period from 03 March to 07 June 2020 and moreover, effective control over contacts and the frequency of population movement would reduce the evolution of the epidemic (control c ≥ 50%). And the contact check has an influence on the base reproduction number R 0 .
KeywordsModelingMathematical EpidemiologyData Analysis
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