The Effect of Patchy Host Distribution on the Dynamics and Persistence of Directly-Transmitted Pathogens: A Cellular Automata Study

Abstract

The effect of fragmented host distributions on the transmission dynamics of directly-transmitted pathogens was explored via stochastic automata simulation. Sixteen diverse population distributions varying in shape and density were used as a substrate for simulated outbreaks. Extended neighborhoods (80 cells), with probability of infection weighted by proximity to an infective source were used to define the overall probability of transitions from susceptible to infected. A static probability defined transitions from infected to recovered. The duration of active transmission as well as the proportion of each population infected per outbreak was averaged over a series of 30 simulations per parameter set. The level of aggregation for each population, measured in terms of the Moran Coefficient (MC) of spatial autocorrelation , was found to affect both the intensity of an outbreak and its length of persistence. Denser populations produced the most cases and lasted longer than those that were sparser. Elongated distributions, measured as the ratio between perimeter and area (PA) reversed some of the trends of increasing density. Long, narrow distributions produced fewer cases and were less persistent than populations composed of more compact clusters but with similar MC. Thus, both the shape and density of host distribution patterns affected the incidence rate, duration of epidemics and the percent of the population infected. Certain patterns of habitat fragmentation, thus, may put more hosts at risk of becoming infected than others.