Impact of climate change on agriculture during winter season over Pakistan

Abstract

This study has been carried out to investigate the impact of climate change over Pakistan and its surrounding areas (60° - 80°E and 20°- 40° N) during winter seasons (December-February). Variability in three meteorological parameters such as: rainfall; air temperature; and moisture transport, has been investigated. Global Pre- cipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) data for precipitation and National Centre for Environ- mental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for computation of Moisture Flux Convergence (MFC) and temperature have been used for the period of 49 years (1961 to 2009). The study period has been divided into three phases on basis of pre- cipitation anomaly i.e. , before climate change scenario (1961-1985), transition period (1986- 1999) and after climate change scenario (2000- 2009).Variability in precipitation has been ob- served in three different ways such as, slightly increase in magnitudes, decrease in rainy days and shifting of precipitation pattern towards south of the country. Moisture transport from the surrounding has decreased with increase in precipitation which is indirectly associated with decreases in mass deposit on the glaciers. In- crease in temperature is more prominent over upper and lower part as compared to the central parts of the country. Uncertainty in precipitation has also been observed. Shift of precipitation over southern parts showed positive impact over agriculture sector. As a result, Rabi crop yield has increased during last decade over southern parts of the country.