Drought is a common occurrence in many arid and semi-arid regions that can have large negative impacts on water resources and agricultural production. Since agricultural drought is affected by both water supply and demand (precipitation and evapotranspiration), it is beneficial to include both in agricultural drought monitoring. The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was found to be a suitable drought index for monitoring agricultural drought. In this study, the SPEI calculated from agro-meteorological weather stations was used to determine exceedance probabilities at five levels in the Texas High Plains. In addition, the kriging method was used to interpolate between the stations to generate spatial maps for the exceedance probabilities. No significant differences were found between stations, indicating any station should be suitable to represent the Texas High Plains. Results showed drought conditions occurred at all five probability levels during the summer growing season for this region. Although differences were not significantly different, the interpolated maps showed a trend where minor differences in the SPEI values were associated with the West-East precipitation gradient. However, there was no trend associated with the North-South air temperature gradient. A risk analysis showed that the SPEI probability values can provide policy and decision makers with additional information for better water management in the Texas High Plains.
Dracup, J.A., Lee, K.S. and Paulson, E.G. (1980) On the Definition of Droughts. Water Resources Research, 16, 297-302. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR016i002p00297
Scanlon, B., et al. (2010) Impact of Agroecosystems on Groundwater Resources in the Central High Plains, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 139, 700-713.
Hernandez, J.E., Gowda, P.H., Marek, T.H., Howell, T.A. and Ha, W. (2013) Groundwater Levels in Northern Texas High Plains: Baseline for Existing Agricultural Management Practices. Texas Water Journal, 4, 22-34.
Colaizzi, P., Gowda, P.H., Marek, T.H. and Porter, D.O. (2009) Irrigation in the Texas High Plains: A Brief History and Potential Reductions in Demand. Irrigation and Drainage, 58, 257-274. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.418
PRWPG, Pandhandle Regional Water Planning Group (2010) Regional Water Plan for the Panhandle Water Planning Area.
HPUWCD (2012) Rules of the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District Number 1. High Plains Underground Water Conservation District Number 1, Lubbock. http://www.hpwd.org/rules/
NPGCD, North Plains Groundwater Conservation District (2012) Rules of the North Plains Groundwater Conservation District.
Moorhead, J.E., et al. (2015) Identifying and Evaluating a Suitable Index for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in the Texas High Plains. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 51, 807-820. https://doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12275
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S. and López-Moreno, J.I. (2010) A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate, 23, 1696-1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Moorhead, J.E., et al. (2013) Use of Crop-Specific Drought Indices for Determining Irrigation Demand in the Texas High Plains. Applied Engineering in Agriculture, 29, 905-916.
Piechota, T.C., Chiew, F.H., Dracup, J.A. and McMahon, T.A. (2001) Development of Exceedance Probability Streamflow Forecast. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 6, 20-28. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2001)6:1(20)
Hayhoe, K., et al. (2004) Emissions Pathways, Climate Change, and Impacts on California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101, 12422-12427. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0404500101
Grossi, P. (2005) Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk. Vol. 25, Springer Science & Business Media, Springer-Verlag, Berlin. https://doi.org/10.1007/b100669
Dobos, A., Gilman, P. and Kasberg, M. (2012) P50/P90 Analysis for Solar Energy Systems Using the System Advisor Model. National Renewable Energy Library. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/54488.pdf
Cancelliere, A., Di Mauro, G., Bonaccorso, B. and Rossi, G. (2007) Drought Forecasting Using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Water Resources Management, 21, 801-819. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9062-y
Paulo, A.A. and Pereira, L.S. (2007) Prediction of SPI Drought Class Transitions Using Markov Chains. Water Resources Management, 21, 1813-1827. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9129-9
Shahid, S. and Behrawan, H. (2008) Drought Risk Assessment in the Western Part of Bangladesh. Natural Hazards, 46, 391-413. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9191-5
Carbone, G.J. and Dow, K. (2005) Water Resource Management and Drought Forecasts in South Carolina. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 41, 145-155. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03724.x
Torres, G.M., Lollato, R.P. and Ochsner, T.E. (2013) Comparison of Drought Probability Assessments Based on Atmospheric Water Deficit and Soil Water Deficit. Agronomy Journal, 105, 428-436. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2012.0295
Marek, T., Porter, D., Gowda, P., Howell, T. and Moorhead, J. (2010), Assessment of Texas Evapotranspiration (ET) Networks. AREC Publication 201011-12. Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Amarillo, 379 p.
Marek, T., Amosson, S., Bretz, F., Guerrero, B. and Kotara, R. (2009) 2011 Panhandle Regional Water Plan Task 2 Report: Agricultural Water Demand Projections. http://www.twdb.texas.gov/waterplanning/rwp/regions/a/index.asp
Porter, D., Marek, T., Howell, T. and New, L. (2005) The Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration Network (TXHPET) User Manual. AREC Publication 05-37.
Allen, R.G., et al. (2005) The ASCE Standardized Reference Evapotranspiration Equation. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston.
Porter, D., et al. (2012) Sensitivity of Grass- and Alfalfa-Reference Evapotranspiration to Weather Station Sensor Accuracy. Applied Engineering in Agriculture, 28, 543-549. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.42100
Risley, J.C., Stonewall, A. and Haluska, T.L. (2008) Estimating Flow-Duration and Low-Flow Frequency Statistics for Unregulated Streams in Oregon. US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey.
McBean, E.A. and Rovers, F.A. (1992) Estimation of the Probability of Exceedance of Contaminant Concentrations. Groundwater Monitoring & Remediation, 12, 115-119. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6592.1992.tb00416.x
Dirk, R. (2013) Frequency Analysis of Rainfall Data. In: College on Soil Physics— 30th Anniversary (1983-2013), The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physica, 244-10.
Scanlon, B.R., et al. (2012) Groundwater Depletion and Sustainability of Irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 9320-9325. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1200311109
Hao, B., et al. (2015) Water Use and Grain Yield in Drought-Tolerant Corn in the Texas High Plains. Agronomy Journal, 107, 1922-1930. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj15.0133
AgriLife Extension (2012) Nitrogen Soil Fertility Recommendations for Texas Grain and Row Crops. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, College Station. http://soiltesting.tamu.edu/files/soilrecs/rowN.pdf