Electoral fraud hinders accountability and undermines the legitimacy of governments. Ensuring that electoral results reflect voters’ preferences and will is a crucial element of representative democracies. This is one of the main aspects of electoral integrity. Electoral integrity refers to a set of principles, rules, and norms aimed at ensuring fairness, transparency, and justice in the electoral process. In Brazil, the discussion about electoral integrity is primarily a matter of law. However, even dogmatic knowledge like law can benefit from empiricism. I propose a combination of quantitative methods for detecting potential anomalies in electoral results. The method combines an analysis of digits (the last digit) with a quick count to identify any significant deviations between an ideal fair election and the results observed in the 2022 Brazilian Elections. The findings suggest no indication of fraud. This study aims to contribute to research on electoral integrity by presenting empirical evidence.
Alvim, F. F. (2015). Integridade eleitoral: Significado e critérios de qualificação. Ballot, 1, 213-228. https://doi.org/10.12957/ballot.2015.22134
Beber, B., & Scacco, A. (2012). What the Numbers Say: A Digit-Based Test for Election Fraud. Political Analysis, 20, 211-234. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps003
Birch, S. (2011). Electoral Malpractice. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199606160.001.0001
Catt, H., Ellis, A., Maley, M., Wall, A., & Wolf, P. (2014). Electoral Management Design. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
Cox, G. W. (1997). Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World’s Electoral Systems. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139174954
Deckert, J., Myagkov, M., & Ordeshook, P. C. (2011). Benford’s Law and the Detection of Election Fraud. Political Analysis, 19, 245-268. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpr014
Dlugosz, S., & Müller-Funk, U. (2009). The Value of the Last Digit: Statistical Fraud Detection with Digit Analysis. Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, 3, 281-300. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11634-009-0048-5
Enikolopov, R., Korovkin, V., Petrova, M., Sonin, K., & Zakharov, A. (2013). Field Experiment Estimate of Electoral Fraud in Russian Parliamentary Elections. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 448-452. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1206770110
Estak, M., Nevitte, N., & Cowan, G. (2002). The Quick Count and Election Observation: An NDI Handbook for Civic Organizations and Political Parties. National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI). https://www.ndi.org/sites/default/files/1417_elect_quickcounthdbk_0.pdf
Figueiredo Filho, D., Silva, L., & Carvalho, E. (2022). The Forensics of Fraud: Evidence from the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election. Forensic Science International: Synergy, 5, Article ID: 100286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsisyn.2022.100286
Fortin-Rittberger, J., Harfst, P., & Dingler, S. C. (2017). The Costs of Electoral Fraud: Establishing the Link between Electoral Integrity, Winning an Election, and Satisfaction with Democracy. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties, 27, 350-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2017.1310111
Hicken, A., & Mebane Jr., W. R. (2017). A Guide to Election Forensics. Univ. Michigan wp. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00MXR7.pdf
James, T. S., & Clark, A. (2020). Electoral Integrity, Voter Fraud, and Voter ID in Polling Stations: Lessons from English Local Elections. Policy Studies, 41, 190-209. https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2019.1694656
Lehoucq, F. (2003). Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types, and Consequences. Annual Review of Political Science, 6, 233-256. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.6.121901.085655
Levin, I., & Alvarez, R. M. (2012). Introduction to the Virtual Issue: Election Fraud and Electoral Integrity. Political Analysis, 20, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1047198700014297
Lijphart, A. (1994). Democracies: Forms, Performance, and Constitutional Engineering. European Journal of Political Research, 25, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1994.tb01198.x
Long, J. D. (2023). Protecting Electoral Integrity in Emerging Democracies. In T. Madon, et al. (Eds.), Introduction to Development Engineering (pp. 489-512). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86065-3_18
López-Pintor, R. (2000). Electoral Management Bodies as Institutions of Governance. Bureau for Development Policy, United Nations Development Programme.
Mack, V., & Stoetzer, L. F. (2019). Election Fraud, Digit Tests and How Humans Fabricate Vote Counts—An Experimental Approach. Electoral Studies, 58, 31-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.12.002
Marchetti, V. (2008). Governança Eleitoral: O modelo brasileiro de justiça eleitoral. Dados, 51, 865-893. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582008000400003
Mulyadi, D., & Aridhayandi, M. R. (2020). The Existence of a Quick Count in the Simultaneous Election Vortex as Part of the Development Indonesian Democracy in the 4.0 Era. Journal of Legal, Ethical and Regulatory Issues, 23, 1-5.
Nogueira, A. J. A. (2021). A Revolução de 1930 e a criação do eleitorado brasileiro. Revista Direito Eleitoral em Debate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355189536_A_Revolucao_de_1930_e_a_criacao_do_eleitorado_brasileiro
Nogueira, A. J. A. (2022). Elections Results—Brazil (Alagoas). [Data set]. Mendeley Data. https://data.mendeley.com/drafts/rd5j4k4bhp
Nogueira, A. J. A. (2023). Apocryphal Document on Fraud in Brazilian Electronic Voting Machines. Mendeley Data, Version 1. https://doi.org/10.17632/6gpkwpvzdn.1
Norris, P. (2015). Why Elections Fail. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107280908
Norris, P., Frank, R. W., & i Coma, F. M. (2014). Measuring Electoral Integrity around the World: A New Dataset. PS: Political Science & Politics, 47, 789-798. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096514001061
Pastor, R. A. (1999). The Role of Electoral Administration in Democratic Transitions: Implications for Policy and Research. Democratization, 6, 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510349908403630
Popper, K. (2018). Conjecturas e Refutações. Edições 70.
Pusdiklatwas, B. P. K. P. (2019). Reviewing Presidential Candidates and Political Parties Reactions on the Results of 2019 General Election Quick Count.
Skovoroda, R., & Lankina, T. (2017). Fabricating Votes for Putin: New Tests of Fraud and Electoral Manipulations from Russia. Post-Soviet Affairs, 33, 100-123. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2016.1207988
Taagepera, R., & Shugart, M. S. (1989). Designing Electoral Systems. Electoral Studies, 8, 49-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(89)90021-8
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) (2022). Portal de Dados Abertos do TSE. https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
Van Ham, C. (2015). Getting Elections Right? Measuring Electoral Integrity. Democratization, 22, 714-737. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2013.877447
Van Ham, C., & Garnett, H. A. (2019). Building Impartial Electoral Management? Institutional Design, Independence, and Electoral Integrity. International Political Science Review, 40, 313-334. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512119834573
Wall, A., Ellis, A., Ayoub, A., Dundas, C. W., Rukambe, J., & Staino, S. (2006). Electoral Management Design. The International IDEA Handbook Series. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
Wibowo, A., & Darmanto, S. (2019). Impact of Quick Count Result of President Election on Stock Prices and Trade Activities in the Indonesian Capital Market. Saudi Journal of Business and Management Studies, 4, 487-493.
Williams, J., & Curiel, J. (2020). Analysis of the Quick Count in the 2019 Bolivia Election. Center for Economic and Policy Research.