Seasonal Based Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Consumption of the electric power highly depends on the Season under consideration. The various means of power generation methods using renewable resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and waves are season dependent. This paves the way for analyzing the demand for electric power based on various Seasons. Many traditional methods are utilized previously for the seasonal based electricity demand forecasting. With the development of the advanced tools, these methods are replaced by efficient forecasting techniques. In this paper, a WEKA time series forecasting is being done for the electric power demand for the three seasons such as summer, winter and rainy seasons. The monthly electric consumption data of domestic category is collected from Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB). Data collected has been pruned based on the three seasons. The WEKA learning algorithms such as Multilayer Perceptron, Support Vector Machine, Linear Regression, and Gaussian Process are used for implementation. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Direction Accuracy (DA) are calculated for the WEKA learning algorithms and they are compared to find the best learning algorithm. The Support Vector Machine algorithm exhibits low Mean Absolute Error and high Direction Accuracy than other WEKA learning algorithms. Hence, the Support Vector Machine learning algorithm is proven to be the WEKA learning algorithm for seasonal based electricity demand forecasting. The need of the hour is to predict and act in the deficit power. This paper is a prelude for such activity and an eye opener in this field.