Climate Change and Urban Transport Sustainability

Abstract

The 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Document, published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reports sea level along the US coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 - 12 inches (0.25 - 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 - 2050) ( NOAA, 2022 ) . This will create coastal flooding by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland. By 2050, “moderate” (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today, and can be intensified by local factors. About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the US coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date . Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 - 5 feet (0.5 - 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 - 7 feet (1.1 - 2.1 meters) by the end of this century. At the same time , cities are experiencing rapid urbanization and population growth with increasing levels of private motorized vehicle ownership and use, a major source of emissions. Non-motorized transport is considered one of the important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and make urbanized communities sustainable. This paper examines the impacts of sea level rise on non-motorized transportation facilities along the coastlines of the State of Delaware using Geographic In formation System (GIS) supported by the latest data and models. Result s show there is significant damage in the number of facilities if sea level rises between 2 and 6 feet. As sea level rise projection gets higher, the number of facilities with major inundation increases. So the question becomes with trails and bikeways disappearing along the coastlines, is there enough space to bring these sites to the cities that are further inland, noting that vehicle use is at an all-time high, and, there are grass roots movements ever ywhere asking decision-makers, engineers and planners for more n on-motorized transport facilities? This paper also examines the challenging policy, engineering and planning implications of creating non-motorized transport sites and capacities in cities with shrinking available land and space for such facilities.