Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Drought in the Northern Prone of Iraq Using Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract

Drought becomes a serious issue in Iraq as upstream countries water policies and climate change consequences. It has negative impacts on different sectors, the environment, biodiversity, economy, and water resources. Long periods of severe drought and no rainfall winter are continuing during the last decades and the trend lines of the drought index gravitate toward unrecorded levels. This research studied the drought by using the standardized precipitation index “SPI” by analyzing the rainfall record since 1980 for the northern prone of Iraq which includes Kurdistan Region Governorates “KRG” (Sulaymaniya, Erbil, and Dohuk), Mosul, and Kirkuk to find out the drought pattern, magnitude, and duration, and mapping the results. This index is a very powerful index that is used worldwide when only rainfall data are available. SPI generator is used for more accuracy and confidence. The results show that all governorate has a vital issue and has a drought magnitude passed the thresholds of M = -1.0, -1.5, -2.0, -2.5, -3.0, and -4.0 which mean s a deficit in the soil moisture content, surface water, and groundwater. In Sulaymaniyah, the record for SPI3, SPI6, and SPI48 respectively is about -3.4, -3.54, and -2.63; in Erbil -2.73, -4.67, and -2.72; in Dohuk -4.22, -4.34, and -2.25; in Mosul -2.57, -2.16: in Kirkuk -3.39, -3.04, and -3.41. It is clear that all governorate s ha ve depletion in groundwater except Mosul which has contentious recharge, and in Erbil, both soil moisture and surface water has no huge deficit due to high rainfall and snowpack in the region. The results concluded that the whole region is subject to drought and under threat of water resources depletion; it needs urgent long-term plans in a sustainable manner to manage and conserve those sources and mitigate the climate change consequences.