Prediction and Diversion Mechanisms for Crowd Management Based on Risk Rating

Abstract

Studies of past accidents have revealed that various elements such as failure to identify hazards, crowd behaviors out of controlling, deficiency of the egress signage system, inconsistency between process behavior and process plan, and environmental constraints, etc. affected crowd evacuation. Above all, the human factor is the key issue in safety and disaster management, although it is bound to other factors inextricably. This paper explores crowd behaviors that may influence an urgent situation, and discusses the technique applied to the crowd prediction. Based on risk rating relative to crowd density, risk plans for different levels are proposed to dispose the potential threats. Also practical crowd management measures at different risk levels are illustrated in a case of a metro station in China. Finally, the strategies for crowd security management are advised that all stakeholders are amenable to form risk consciousness and implement safety procedures consistent with risk plans professionally and scientifically.