An attempt is made to locate nuclear technology within a logical context considering history, risks, societal catastrophes and perspectives: the need is identified for a new direction in the exploitation in order to restore the role in energy production. We depict the situation coming from a marvelous history of discoveries started at the beginning of the XX century; heroes are recalled who made possible something that is inconceivable today: design, construction and production of electricity in a few years; that history was tainted by intentional nuclear explosions, i.e. the original sin that we are now paying. Then, we attempt to show that the societal risk is an inherent part of the civilization. Restoring the public trust (towards nuclear fission technology) by matching nuclear safety with the current technological status and advancers in risk assessment is the key objective. The “ independent assessment ” , or a principle for the exploitation of nuclear energy already stated in the 50’s of the previous century, shall then re-appear. This is used to erect the signpost for a “ dynamic barricade ” to further reduce the risk of operation of nuclear reactors and to match the design with current technological capabilities and with the frontiers of the research.
KeywordsSocietal RiskRisk and ProbabilityCatastrophesNuclear FissionNuclear Reactor TechnologyDynamic BarricadeCost of Safety
Duffey, R.B. (2012) A Future at Risk. Mechanical Engineering, 134, 34-38. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.2012-JUL-2
Gupta, K., Nowlin, M.C., Ripberger, J.T., Jenkins-Smith, H.C. and Silva, C.L. (2019) Tracking the Nuclear “Mood” in the United States: Introducing a Long Term Measure of Public Opinion about Nuclear Energy Using Aggregate Survey Data. Energy Policy, 133, 110888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110888
Bosetti, V., Marangoni, G., Borgonovo, E., Anadon, L.D., Barron, R., McJeon, H.C., Politis, S. and Friley, P. (2015) Sensitivity to Energy Technology Costs: A Multi-Model Comparison Analysis. Energy Policy, 80, 244-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.012
Duffey, R.B. and Pioro, I. (2019) Ensuring the Future of Nuclear Power. Mechanical Engineering, 141, 30-35. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.2019-NOV1
Duffey, R.B. (2015) Extreme Events: Causes and Prediction. American Nuclear Society Conference, Probabilistic Safety Analysis, PSA2015, Sun Valley, 21-26 April 2015, Paper No. 12222.
Muellner, N., Cherubini, M., Kromp, W., D’Auria, F. and Petrangeli, G. (2007) A Procedure to Optimize the Timing of Operator Actions of Accident Management Procedures. Journal of Nuclear Engineering and Design, 237, 2151-2156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2007.03.011
Duffey, R.B. and Saull, J.W. (2008) Managing Risk: The Human Element. J. Wiley and Sons, Chichester.
Duffey, R.B. and Ha, T.-S. (2010) Human Reliability: Benchmark and Prediction. Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng., Part O, 224, 185-196. https://doi.org/10.1243/1748006XJRR307
D’Auria, F. (2019) Nuclear Fission: from E. Fermi to Adm. Rickover, to Industrial Exploitation, to Nowadays Challenges. Journal of Advancement in Scientific and Engineering Research, 4, 17-30.
Rhodes, R. (1987) The Making of the Atomic Bomb. Touchstone, New York.
Rhodes, R. (1995) Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb. Simon and Schuster, New York.
Goldschmidt, B. (1982) The Atomic Complex. American Nuclear Society, LaGrange Park.
Rockwell, T. (1995) The Rickover Effect: The Inside Story of How Adm. Hyman Rickover Built the Nuclear Navy. J. Wiley & Sons, Publisher Inc., Hoboken, 1-411.
Duncan, F. (1989) Rickover and the Nuclear Navy: The Discipline of Technology. Naval Institute Press (US), Annapolis, 1-424.
Rockwell, (2002) The Rickover Effect: How One Man Made a Difference. Backinprint.Com (An Open Library for the World), Chicago, 1-486.
Crossland, I. (2012) Nuclear Fuel Cycle Science and Engineering. Woodhead Publishing, Sawston, Cambridge, 1-648. https://doi.org/10.1533/9780857096388
IAEA (2017) Nuclear Power Reactors in the World. 37th Edition, IAEA-RDS-2/37, Vienna, 1-79.
Houston, D.A. (1991) Privatization of Electricity in the United States. In: Crew, M.A., Ed., Competition and the Regulation of Utilities—Topics in Regulatory Economics and Policy Series, 7, Springer, Boston. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-4048-9_11
Vlahinic, N. (2011) The Effect of Privatization in Electricity Sector: The Case of Southeast European Countries. In: Sanders, G.G. and Tichy, L., Eds., Offentliche Daseinsvorsorge in Deutschland und Ostmitteleuropa zwischen Daseinsvorsorge und Wettbewerb, Verlag dr Kovac, Stuttgart, 121-137.
Pioro, I. (Ed.) (2016) Handbook of Generation IV Nuclear Reactors (A Volume in Woodhead Publishing Series in Energy). Woodhead Publishing, Sawston, Cambridge, 1-940.
Kessides, I.N. (2012) The Future of the Nuclear Industry Reconsidered: Risks, Uncertainties, and Continued Promise. Energy Policy, 48, 185-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.008
Galassi, G.M. and D’Auria, F. (2017) Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects of Key Nuclear Accidents. In: D’Auria, F., Ed., Thermal Hydraulics in Water-Cooled Nuclear Reactors, Elsevier, Woodhead Publishing, Sawston, Cambridge, Chapter 16, 1099-1152. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-100662-7.00016-6
US NRC (2009) An Approach for Determining the Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Results from Risk Informed Activities. Regulatory Guide, RG 1-2000, Washington DC, 1-191.
US NRC (1975) WASH-1400, NUREG-75/014, Washington DC.
Keller, W. and Modarres, M. (2005) A Historical Overview of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Development and Its Use in the Nuclear Power Industry: A Tribute to the Late Professor Norman Carl Rasmussen. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 89, 271-285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2004.08.022
Rempe, J. and Knudson, D.L. (2013) TMI-2—A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident. Idaho National Laboratory, INL/ EXT-13-28043, Idaho Falls. https://doi.org/10.2172/1097179
IAEA (1993) The Chernobyl Accident: Supplement to INSAG-1. Report by the International Consultative Group on the Nuclear Safety, Safety Series N75, INSAG-7, Vienna.
Mizokami, S. and Kumagai, Y. (2015) Event Sequence of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident. In: Ahn, J., Jensen, M., Juraku, K., Nagasaki, S. and Tanaks, S., Eds., Reflections on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident, Springer, Cham, 21-50. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12090-4_2
US EIA (2019) Annual Energy Outlook (with Projections to 2050). 1-83. https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v16i31.1286
IAEA (2017) Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. Reference Data Series No 1, 2017 Edition, Vienna, 1-156.
Newell, R.G., Raimi, D. and Adana, G. (2019) Global Energy Outlook 2019: The Next Generation of Energy. Resources for the Future, 1-46. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Pioro, I. and Duffey, R.B. (2015) Nuclear Power as a Basis for Future Electricity Generation. ASME Journal of Nuclear Engineering and Radiation Science, 1, Article ID: 011001. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4029420
Australian Government (2019) Australian Energy Update 2019. Department of the Environment and Energy, 1-43. https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics
OECD/NEA (2019) The Cost of Decarbonisation: System Costs with High Shares of Nuclear and Renewables. @OECD 2019, Paris, NEA No. 7299, 1-224.
Jalonen, R. and Salmi, K. (2009) Safety Performance Indicators for Maritime Safety Management: Literature Review. Report TKK-AM, University of Technology Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Helsinki.
NASA (2010) Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook. NASA/SP-2010-576, ver 1.0, Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, US.
D’Auria, F., Camargo, C., Muellner, N., Lanfredini, M. and Mazzantini, O. (2012) The Simulation of I & C in Accident Analyses of Nuclear Power Plants. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 250, 656-663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2012.04.022
Duffey, R.B. (2012) Extreme Events: The New Social Design Basis. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering Collocated with the ASME 2012 Power Conference, ICONE20POWER2012, 30 July-1 August 2012 Anaheim, No. 54253.
Breyer, S. (1993) Breaking the Vicious Circle: Towards Effective Risk Regulation. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Abe, S., Ozawa, M. and Shiroshita, H. (2018) What Do Societal Safety Sciences Aim At? In: Science of Societal Safety: Living at Times of Risks and Disasters, Springer, Singapore, 3-13. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2775-9_1
Cuttler, J.M. (2013) Commentary on Fukushima and Beneficial Effects of Low Radiation. Dose-Response, 11, 432-443. https://doi.org/10.2203/dose-response.13-008.Cuttler
OECD/NEA/CSNI (2009) Probabilistic Risk Criteria and Safety Goals. NEA/CSNI/ R(2009)16, Paris, 17 December 2009, 1-179.
US NRC (2012) State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA). NUREG- 1935, Washington DC.
US NRC (2013) Modeling Potential Reactor Accident Consequences: State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA): Using Decades of Research and Experience to Model Accident Progression, Mitigation, Emergency Response, and Health Effects. NUREG/CR-0359, Washington DC.
NEI (2016) External Flooding Assessment Guidelines. Report NEI 16-05, Washington DC, 1-98.
Zio, E. and Duffey, R.B. (2020) The Risk of the Electrical Power Grid Due to Natural Hazards and Recovery Challenge Following Disasters and Record Floods: What Next? Chapter in Book, to be published.
Miller, C., Cubbage, A., Dorman, D., Grobe, J., Holahan, G. and Sanfilippo, N. (2011) Recommendations for Enhancing Reactor Safety in the 21st Century (The Near-Term Task Force Review of Insights from the Fukushima Daiichi Accident). USNRC ML112510271, Washington DC, 12 July 2011, 1-96.
Howlett, H.C. (2001) The Industrial Operator’s Handbook. 2nd Edition, Techstar, Pocatello, 40, 63 and 76.
US NRC (2007) Feasibility Study for a Risk-Informed and Performance-Based Regulatory Structure for Future Plant Licensing, NUREG-1860, Vols 1 and 2, Washington DC.
Bea, R. (2013) Testimony, United States District Court, Eastern District of Louisiana, Oil Spill by the Oil Rig Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico on April 20, 2010 Civil Action No. 10-MD-2179, p 281, New Orleans, Louisiana (US), Feb. 26, Official Transcript, 268-364.
D’Auria, F., Debrecin, N. and Glaeser, H. (2019) The Technological Challenge for Current Generation Nuclear Reactors. Nuclear Energy and Technology (NUCET), 5, 183-199. https://doi.org/10.3897/nucet.5.38117
IAEA (2011) A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process. INSAG-25, Vienna.
Menzel, F., Sabundijan, G., D’Auria, F. and Madeira, A. (2016) Proposal for Systematic Application of BEPU in the Licensing Process of Nuclear Power Plants. Int. J. Nuclear Energy Science and Technology, 10, 323-338. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJNEST.2016.081998
Eide, S.A., Wierman, T.E., Gentillon, C.D., Rasmuson, D.M. and Atwood, C.L. (2007) Baseline Risk Index for Initiating Events (BRIIE). US NRC Report NUREG/ CR-6932, Washington DC.
Rathnayaka, S., Khan, F. and Amayotte, P. (2013) Accident Modeling and Risk Assessment Framework for Safety Critical Decision-Making: Application to Deepwater Drilling Operation. Journal of Risk and Reliability, 227, 86-105. https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006X12472158
US AEC (1971) Interim Acceptance Criteria (IAC) for ECCS. US AEC, Washington DC.
Greenfield, M.A. (1998) The Changing Face of NASA and Aerospace. Deputy Associate Administrator, Office of Safety and Mission Assurance Normal Accident Theory, Hagerstown.
Theofanous, T.G. (1996) On Proper Formulation of Safety Goals and Assessment of Safety Margins for Rare and High Consequence Hazards. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54, 243-257. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(96)00079-8
Galushin, S. (2019) Development of Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology for Assessment of Effectiveness of Severe Accident Management Strategy in Nordic BWR. Doctoral Thesis No. 08, February, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, 1-93.
D’Auria, F. (2018) Status Report on Thermal-Hydraulic Passive Systems Design and Safety Assessment. Invited at Focus Session “Safety of Advanced Nuclear Power Plants” (coordinators A. Schaffrath, T. Mull) of Annual Meeting on Nuclear Technology (AMNT), Berlin, 29-30 May 2018. http://www.kernenergie.de/ http://www.nucleartech-meet.com/
Duffey, R.B. and Saull, J.W. (2002) Know the Risk. Butterworth and Heinemann, Boston.
NPDP (2019) National Performance of Dams Program. National Performance of Dams Program Dam Failure Data, Provided 11/23/2019 by M.W. McCann, Jr.
McCann, M.W. and Lundqvist, A. (2017) Development of F-N Curves for Public Safety Risks Associated with Dam Failures in the US. Proceedings of the Association of State Dam Safety Officials Annual Conference, San Antonio, 10-14 September 2017.
Duffey, R.B. (2015) The Seven Risk Paradoxes. American Nuclear Society Conference, Probabilistic Safety Analysis, PSA2015, Sun Valley, 21-26 April 2015, Paper No. 12223.
Duffey, R.B. and Fiondella, L. (2014) Software, Hardware and Procedure Reliability by Testing and Verification: Evidence of Learning Trends. IEEE Transactions on Human-Machine Systems, 44, 395-405. https://doi.org/10.1109/THMS.2014.2306932
Fiondella, L. and Duffey, R.B. (2015) Software and Human Reliability: Error Reduction and Prediction. American Nuclear Society Conference, Probabilistic Safety Analysis, PSA2015, Sun Valley, 21-26 April 2015, Paper No. 12221.
Petrowski, H. (1994) Design Paradigms. Cambridge University Press, New York, 1-222.
París, C., Queral, C., Mula, J., Gómez-Magán, J., Sánchez-Perea, M., Meléndez, E. and Gil, J. (2019) Quantitative Risk Reduction by Means of Recovery Strategies. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 182, 13-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.09.024
Rempe J. [Ed.] (2019) U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi-2019 Evaluations. ANL Report 19/08, Office of Nuclear Energy, US DoE, 1-387. http://www.osti.gov/ http://www.ntis.gov/
SPX (2014) Enhancing Nuclear Power Safety. World Pumps, 12, 12-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0262-1762(14)70304-9
US DHS (2019) Multi-Hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Flood Model. Hazus-MH, Dept. of Homeland Security, Washington DC, 1-569. https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1820-25045-8292/hzmh2_1_fl_tm.pdf
IRGC (2006) Managing and Reducing Social Vulnerabilities from Coupled Critical Infrastructures. International Risk Governance Council, White Paper #3, Geneva.
US DHS (2018) Strengthening the Cyber Security of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure, Washington DC. https://www.energy.gov/downloads/report-strengthening-cybersecurity-federal-networks-and-critical-infrastructure
D’Auria, F., Debrecin, N. and Glaeser, H. (2017) Strengthening Nuclear Reactor Safety and Analysis. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 324, 209-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2017.09.008
Mazzantini, O., Galassi, G. and D’Auria, F. (2019) Reprint of “The Role of Nuclear thermal-Hydraulics in the Licensing of Atucha-II: The LBLOCA”. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 354, 110292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110292