Very Large Floating Structures as Catalysts for the Energy Transition: A SWOT Analysis for Decarbonization in the South Atlantic

Abstract

Very Large Floating Structures (VLFS) have emerged as promising offshore solutions for energy production and logistics in the context of global decarbonization. However, despite extensive technical literature on their engineering feasibility, there remains a lack of strategic and comparative assessments that evaluate how VLFS can be effectively deployed in emerging economies, particularly in regions characterized by ultra-deepwater resources, regulatory complexity, and capital constraints, such as the South Atlantic and Brazil’s pre-salt province. This gap limits informed decision-making regarding which VLFS-based energy pathways are most viable for supporting the energy transition. This study addresses this problem by developing an integrated strategic assessment of VLFS applications for offshore transformation of natural gas into blue hydrogen, blue ammonia, and methanol. The methodology combines a systematic literature review with a SWOT analysis grounded in empirical and conceptual evidence, followed by a weighted multi-criteria decision framework based on sixteen technical, economic, environmental, regulatory, and social criteria. Criteria weights were assigned through structured expert consultation, enabling a semi-quantitative comparison of the three technological alternatives under Brazilian offshore conditions. The results indicate that, while all pathways present strategic opportunities, blue ammonia achieves the highest overall performance, particularly in the most heavily weighted criteria of greenhouse gas reduction and economic viability. Its advantages in storage, transport, market maturity, and alignment with Brazil’s domestic fertilizer demand position it as a lower-risk and more immediately deployable option compared to blue hydrogen and offshore methanol. The study concludes that VLFS-based blue ammonia production represents a strategically robust pathway for monetizing offshore gas while advancing decarbonization in the South Atlantic. The novelty of this work lies in moving beyond engineering-focused VLFS studies by integrating strategic management tools, expert-weighted criteria, and regional context into a transparent comparative framework. This approach provides actionable insights for policymakers and investors and offers a replicable methodology for evaluating offshore energy transition infrastructures in other Global South regions.