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Forecast of Power Generation for Grid-Connected Photo-voltaic System Based on Grey Theory and Verification Model
College of Information and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, P. R. China
Beijing Electric Power Corporation, Beijing, P. R. China
Beijing Huaxing Hengye Electric Equipment Co.Ltd, Beijing, P. R. China
- 1 College of Information and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, P. R. China
- 2 Beijing Electric Power Corporation, Beijing, P. R. China
- 3 Beijing Huaxing Hengye Electric Equipment Co.Ltd, Beijing, P. R. China
Energy and Power Engineering·Volume 05 (2013)·Pages 177–181·Published 30 June 2013·DOI10.4236/epe.2013.54B034
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Abstract
Being photovoltaic power generation affected by radiation strength, wind speed, clouds cover and environment temperature, the generating in each moment is fluctuating. The operational characteristics of grid-connected PV systems are coincided with gray theory application conditions. A gray theory model has been applied in short-term forecast of grid-connected photovoltaic system. The verification model of the probability of small error will help to check the accuracy of the gray forecast results. The calculated result shows that the model accuracy has been greatly enhanced.
KeywordsForecast of Power GenerationGrid-connected Photovoltaic SystemData DiscretizationGreedy AlgorithmContinuous AttributesRough Sets
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