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Wind Power System Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Copula Function Modeling
Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guiyang, China
Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guiyang, China
Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guiyang, China
School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- 1 Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guiyang, China
- 2 Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guiyang, China
- 3 Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guiyang, China
- 4 School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- 5 School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- 6 School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Energy and Power Engineering·Volume 09 (2017)·Pages 352–364·Published 6 April 2017·DOI10.4236/epe.2017.94B041
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Abstract
According to the characteristics of the correlation of multiple wind farm output, this paper put forwards a modeling method based on fuzzy c-means clustering and the copula function, and correlation wind farms are inserted into IEEE-RTS79 reliability system for risk assessment. By the probabilistic load flow calculated by Monte Carlo simulation method, the probability of the accident is derived, and bus voltage and branch power flow overload risk index are defined in this paper. The results show that this method can realize the modeling of the correlation of wind power output, and the risk index can identify the weakness of the system, which can provide reference for the operation and maintenance personnel.
KeywordsCorrelationFuzzy ClusteringCopula FunctionRisk Assessment
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