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A Transformer Replacement Decision Method Based on Probability Assessment of Failure Rate
State Grid Tianjin Dongli Electric Power Supply Company, Tianjin, China
State Grid Tianjin Economic Research Institute, Tianjin, China
Tianjin Electric Power Research Institute, Tianjin, China
Tianjin Electric Power Research Institute, Tianjin, China
State Grid Tianjin Dispatching and Control Center, Tianjin, China
State Grid Tianjin Dispatching and Control Center, Tianjin, China
- 1 State Grid Tianjin Dongli Electric Power Supply Company, Tianjin, China
- 2 State Grid Tianjin Economic Research Institute, Tianjin, China
- 3 Tianjin Electric Power Research Institute, Tianjin, China
- 4 Tianjin Electric Power Research Institute, Tianjin, China
- 5 State Grid Tianjin Dispatching and Control Center, Tianjin, China
- 6 State Grid Tianjin Dispatching and Control Center, Tianjin, China
Energy and Power Engineering·Volume 09 (2017)·Pages 748–755·Published 6 April 2017·DOI10.4236/epe.2017.94B080
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Abstract
Reasonable probability assessment of transformer failure rate (FR) is a critical reference to the transformer replacement work. At present, the lack of support theory for transformer replacement usually causes reliability and economy issues for power companies. For this reason, a transformer replacement decision method based on probability assessment of FR is proposed. Firstly, a first order model of transformer paper degradation is proposed. Then, the Weibull Distribution is used by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to generate the variations of Degree of Polymerization (DP) along with time based on the historical data, and the transformer FR is determined. When the FR is higher than a pre-defined threshold value, the transformer should be replaced for reliability purpose. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method for the transformer replacement decision is verified by a typical engineering application.
KeywordsTransformer ReplacementProbability AssessmentWeibull DistributionDegree of Polymerization
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