Births, economic growth, mortality and murder in a developing country — Oak Academic Publishing
Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
Births, economic growth, mortality and murder in a developing country
Socio-Medical Research Institute, Kingston, Jamaica (Formerly, Department of Community Health and Psychiatry, The University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica)
1 Socio-Medical Research Institute, Kingston, Jamaica (Formerly, Department of Community Health and Psychiatry, The University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica)
Background: In 1960, total fertility rate in Jamaica was 5.6 children per woman which declined by 57.5% in 2008. The reduction in fertility is primarily attributable to contraceptive measures; but murder and other selected macroeconomic variables have never been included in the literature. Objectives: This study examines murder, mortality, and selected macroeconomic variables are factors of births, using data for Jamaica from 1989-2009. Methods: The study is a secondary data analysis of statistics on Jamaica from 1989 - 2009 but also includes data on births from 1900s. Find- ings: In the decade of the 1950s, births increased by 79.9% over the decade of 1900s, grew by 22.4% in the 1960s over the previous decade and declined by 17.6% in 2000s compared with the 1990s. Four emerged as statistically significant predictors of lnbirth—inflation, GDP per capita growth, mortality and murder, with an explanatory power of 90.6%—F = 19.291, P < 0.0001. With there being a strong statistical correlation between annual exchange rate and murder (r s = 0.962), when murder was excluded and replaced by annual exchange rate, the factors influencing lnbirth was exchange rate, inflation, unemployment, GDP per capita growth and mortality—all factors account for 92.2% of the variability in lnbirth—F = 30.572, P < 0.0001. Conclusion: Murder is more that a crime it is a cause of birth decline, suggesting that public health practitioners as well as epidemiologists must take this factor into account as it is a birth determinant.
Jamaica, Family Planning Board (1994, 1998, 2005, 2010) Reproductive health survey, 1993, 1997, 2002, 2008. Family Planning Board, Kingston.
Orleans, L.A. (1975) China’s experience on population control: The elusive model. World Development, 3, 497-525. doi:10.1016/0305-750X(75)90051-0
Potts, M. (2006) China’s one child policy: The policy that changed the world. BMJ, 333, 361-362. doi:10.1136/bmj.38938.412593.80
Zulu, E. (2010) Family planning, fertility and poverty in Africa: Overview of issues. Seminar on Fertility and Poverty: Micro and Macro Linkages, Southampton, 28-29 January 2010.
Cincotta, R.P. and Haddock, S. (2006) Family planning in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reducing risks in the era of AIDS. Population Action International, 1, 1-5.
Bulatao, R.A. (1984) Reducing fertility in developing countries: A review of determinants and policy levers. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 680 and Population and Development Series No. 5.
Kiser, C.V. and Whelpton, P.K. (1953) Social and psychological factors affecting fertility. Population Studies, 7, 95.
Bongaarts, J. (1978) A framework for analysing the proximate determinants of fertility. Population and Development Review, 4, 105-132. doi:10.2307/1972149
Younglai, E.V., Holloway, A.C. and Foster, W.G. (2005) Environmental and occupational factors affecting fertility and IVF success. Human Reproduction, 11, 43-57.
Adhikari, R. (2010) Demographic, socio-economic, and cultural factors affecting fertility differentials in Nepal. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 10, 19. doi:10.1186/1471-2393-10-19
Powell, L.A., Bourne, P. and Waller, G. (2007) Probing Jamaica’s political culture, volume 1: Main trends in the July-August 2006 leadership and governance survey. Centre for Leadership and Governance, Kingston.
Harriott, A. (2004) Introduction. In: Harriott A., Brathwaite F. and Wortley S., Eds., Crime and Criminal Justice in the Caribbean, Arawak Publishers, Kingston, 1-7.
Boxill, I., Lewis, B., Russell, R., Bailey, A., Waller, L., James, C., Martin, P., Gibbs, L. and Seligson, M.A. (2007) Political culture of democracy in Jamaica: 2006. Americas barometer. The University of the West Indies, Kingston.
Simmonds, L.E. (2004) The problem of crime in an urban slave society: Kingston in the early nineteenth century. In: Harriott A., Brathwaite F. and Wortley S., Eds., Crime and Criminal Justice in the Caribbean, Arawak Publishers, Kingston, 8-34.
Mars, J.R. (2004) Police abuse of force in Guyana: Applying lessons from the United States. In: Harriott A., Brathwaite F. and Wortley S., Eds., Crime and Criminal Justice in the Caribbean, Arawak Publishers, Kingston, 206-224.
Robotham, D. (2003) Crime and public policy in Jamaica. In: Harriott A., Ed., Understanding Crime in Jamaica: New challenges for public policy, University of the West Indies Press, Kingston, 197-238.
Headley, B. (1994) The Jamaican crime scene: A perspective. Eureka Press, Mandeville.
Sives, A. (2003) The historical roots of violence in Jamaica: The Hearne report 1949. In: Harriott A., Ed., Understanding Crime in Jamaica: New challenges for public policy. University of the West Indies Press, Kingston, 49-62.
MacDonald, G. (2002) Violence and health: The ultimate public health challenge. Health Promotion International 17, 293-295. doi:10.1093/heapro/17.4.293
Grabill, W.H., Kiser, C.V. and Whelpton, P.K. (1958) The fertility of American women. Wiley, New York.
Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) (1989-2011) Jamaica survey of living conditions, 1989-2010. PIOJ, STATIN, Kingston.
PIOJ (1989-2010) Economic and social survey of Jamaica, 1988-2009. PIOJ, Kingston.
Bank of Jamaica (BoJ) (1981-2010) Statistical digest, 1980-2009. Bank of Jamaica.
World Bank (2002) Jamaica survey of living conditions 1988-2000. World Bank, Washington, DC.
McCaw-Binns, A., Fox, K., Foster-Williams, K., et al. (1996) Registration of births, stillbirths and infant deaths in Jamaica. International Journal of Epidemiology, 25, 807-813. doi:10.1093/ije/25.4.807
Fox, K. et al. (2006) Assessing the level of births and birth registration in Jamaica. Ministry of Health, Kingston.
Mathers, C.D., Fat, D.M., Inoue, M., et al. (2005) Counting the dead and what they died from: An assessment of the global status of cause of death data. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 83, 172-173.
Harriott, K. (2000) Essential facts about inflation. Bank of Jamaica, Kingston. http://www.boj.org.jm/uploads/pdf/papers_pamphlets/papers_pamphlets_Essential_Facts_About_Inflation_.pdf
Berer, M. (2004) Sexuality, rights and social justice. Reproductive Health Matters, 12, 6-11. doi:10.1016/S0968-8080(04)23130-5
Ramacon, E.G. (2011) Remittances survey 2010. Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), Kingston. http://boj.org.jm/uploads/pdf/remittance_survey_results_2010.pdf
Davis, K. and Blake, J. (1956) Social structure and fertility: An analytic framework. Economic and Cultural Change, 4, 211-235. doi:10.1086/449714
Alene, G.D. and Worku, A. (2009) Estimation of the total fertility rates and proximate determinants of fertility in North and South Gondar zones, Northwest Ethiopia: An application of the Bongaarts’ model. Ethiop.J.Health Dev, 23, 19-27.