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A Simulation Model for the Risk of Fetal Exposure Originated by the Zika Virus (VIZK)

¹ Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
² Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
³ Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
⁴ Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
⁵ Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
⁶ Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
⁷ Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
⁸ Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
⁹ Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia
¹⁰ Facultad de Medicina, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla, México
¹¹ Facultad de Medicina, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla, México
¹² Facultad de Medicina, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla, México
¹³ Facultad de Medicina, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla, México

Health·Volume 08 (2016)·Pages 1178–1186·Published 26 August 2016·DOI10.4236/health.2016.812121

Abstract

It is set and analyzed a simulation model based on non-linear ordinary differential equations to interpret the dynamics of the microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus in a risk group of pregnant women. This one is induced by a population of men in a reproductive age. Also, some parameters of the model were estimated for an average temperature of 23℃ and by using the adjusted functions from references [1] [2]. All system simulations were done with the Maple software and parameters values obtained from several sources (estimated, hypothetic, and form literature). It has been found that the application of contraceptive measures impacts the population of sexually active women. As result, the exposure to congenital abnormalities increases, particularly, microcephaly.

KeywordsModelMicrocephalyZika VirusBasic Reproduction NumberRisk GroupIncidence

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A Simulation Model for the Risk of Fetal Exposure Originated by the Zika Virus (VIZK)

Abstract

References (18)