The Impact of Tobacco Taxation Policy on Slim Cigarette Use and the Growing Popularity of Slim Cigarettes in China Since 2014

Abstract

Introduction: In 2016, China became the largest market for slim cigarettes in the world, selling 68.945 billion sticks. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of China’s 2015 tobacco taxation policy on slim cigarette consumption and the product’s market trends. Methods: Monthly data on the market share of slim cigarettes and their average price between January 2014 and June 2017 were used to show tobacco market trends and to estimate the impact of the 2015 tobacco tax increase on tobacco consumption. Segmented regression analysis was used to estimate the immediate effect of the 2015 tax policy and the time trends in consumption due to the policy change. Findings: After the tobacco tax increase was announced in May 2015, the market share of slim cigarettes initially decreased by 0.2117 (p = 0.067). However, by the third month after the policy change, consumption began to increase, and the market share of slim cigarettes was 1.6 times the normal increase over time. Slim cigarettes gained a 2.02% additional share by the second quarter of 2017 (from 2.58% to 4.60%), controlling for the price difference between slim cigarettes and regular cigarettes. The coefficient of the share and the price ratio (slim cigarettes/regular cigarettes) was ? 0.7536 (p = 0.0044), suggesting that slim cigarettes are a substitute for regular cigarettes. Estimates also show that after the tax increase was implemented, consumption of slim cigarettes increased almost three times the normal consumption rate (0.0069 versus 0.0024). Conclusion: The slim cigarette industry in China has grown rapidly in recent years. The 2015 tax increase has had only minimal or short-term impact on reducing the growing popularity of slim cigarettes. Since slim cigarettes are a substitute for regular cigarettes, more empirical research is urgently needed to study the health impacts of slim cigarette use and the impact of tobacco control policies on slim cigarette consumption.