Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
Exlog Weighted Sum Model for Long Term Forecasting
Department of Accounting, School of Business, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Department of Accounting, School of Business, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Institute of Mathematics and Digital Technology, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
- 1 Department of Accounting, School of Business, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
- 2 Department of Accounting, School of Business, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
- 3 Institute of Mathematics and Digital Technology, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Copy link · social · email
Abstract
Long-term forecasting of key macroeconomic indicators such as population is very important for future development policy - making. Population plays an important role in economic decision - making, social security and economic growth. So it is important to develop a good model for predicting economic indicators. In order to improve the growth model, we introduce a new model called Exlog Weighted Sum Model for predicting macroeconomic indicators. This model combines both exponential and logistic models. The proposed model was tested for predicting Mongolian population up to 2040.
KeywordsExponential ModelLogistic ModelExlog Weighted Sum ModelForecasting
- Enkhbat, R. (2018). Optimization Methods (pp. 78-88). MUIS Press Publisher.
- Enkhbat, R., & Tungalag, N. (2006). Mathematical Modeling of Pension Insurance of Mongolia. In Transaction Economy Problems in Central Asia, Scientific International Conference Proceedings (pp. 177-185). National University of Mongolia.
- Enkhbat, R., Enkhbayar, J., & Bayanjargal, D. (2018). Application of Stochastic Differential Equations in Population Growth in Optimization Applications. In Optimization Applications in Economics and Finance (pp. 82-88). LAP Lambert Academic Publishing.
- Panik, M. J. (2014). Fundamentals of Population Dynamics. In Growth Curve Modeling: Theory and Applications (pp.352-371). John Wiley.
- Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
- Tungalag N., Oyuntsesteg L., Enkhbat R., & Enkhbayar J. (2015). An Evaluation of Pension Insurance Reform Options for Mongolia. Proceedings of China International Conference on Insurance and Risk Management, 551 p.