Prospects for Renewable and Fossil-Based Electricity Generation in a Carbon-Constrained World
- 1 Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Abstract
In this paper, a regionally disaggregated global energy system model with a detailed treatment of the electricity supply sector is used to derive the cost-optimal choice of electricity generation technologies for each of 70 world regions over the period 2010-2050 under a constraint of halving global energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2050 compared to the 2000 level. It is first shown that the long-term global electricity generation mix under the CO <sub>2</sub> constraint becomes highly diversified, which includes coal, natural gas, nuclear, biomass, hydro, geothermal, onshore and offshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), and concentrated solar power (CSP). In this carbon-constrained world, 89.9% of the electricity generation from coal, natural gas, and biomass is combined with CO <sub>2</sub> capture and storage (CCS) in 2050. It is then shown that the long-term electricity generation mix under the CO <sub>2</sub> constraint varies significantly by world region. Fossil fuels with CCS enter the long-term electricity generation mix in all world regions. In contrast, there is a sharp regional difference in the renewable generation technology of choice in the long term. For example, the world regions suitable for PV plants include the US, Western Europe, Japan, Korea, and China, while those suitable for CSP plants include the Middle East, Africa, Australia, and western Asia. Offshore wind is deployed on a large scale in the UK, Ireland, Nordic countries, the southern part of Latin America, and Japan.
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