Development of an Analytical Model of the Process of Cybersecurity Protection of Distributed Information Systems of Critical Infrastructure

Abstract

This article is dedicated to the creation of the analytical model of quantitative estimation of cybersecurity of Information Systems of Critical Infrastructure (ISCI). The model takes into consideration the existence, in the discussed ISCI, of both the intelligent tools of detection, analysis and identification of threats and vulnerabilities and means for restauration and elimination of their consequences. The development of the model also takes into consideration probabilistic nature of flow of events happening in ISCI and transferring the system between different states of cybersecurity. Among such probabilistic events we mean any operational perturbations (that can cause extreme situations) happening in ISCI under the influence of cyber-threats, as well as events concerning restoration and elimination of consequences of such cyber-threats. In this work, as methods of modelling, there have been used methods of system-oriented analysis based on theory of probability, theory of reliability and theory of queues. These methods enabled to describe analytically dependence of effectiveness indices of ISCI operation on abovementioned probabilistic processes.