Intermediate-Term Seismic Precursors to the Loma Prieta California Earthquake of 1989

Abstract

We use precise locations of earthquakes to study forerunning seismic activity to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake of magnitude 6.9 to the south of San Francisco, California, USA. Relocated shocks of magnitude 4.3 to 5.4 and smaller micro-earthquakes define a distinct zone of nearly the same orientation as the mainshock. That separate zone broke in the 15 months prior to the 1989 mainshock. That feature, which we call the Lake Elsman fault zone, is identified as the site of a prominent intermediate-term (yearly) precursor very close to the coming 1989 mainshock. That zone experienced a relatively large stress decrease during the nearby great earthquake of 1906. From the occurrence of the Lake Elsman shocks, we deduce that stress drop was only restored in the 15 months prior to the 1989 main event. Those stresses are consistent with little forerunning seismic activity in the region after 1906, la ter increases just before the 1989 mainshock and a decrease in activity there after. The southern Santa Cruz mountains segment of the San Andre as Fault zone, the location of the 1989 mainshock, had not been the site of events of magnitude 5 and larger for many decades prior to the occurrence of Lake Elsman earthquakes of magnitude 5.3 and 5.4 in 1988 and 1989. High-preci - sion locations readily available in real-time might be used to monitor similar possible precursory activity very close to the San Andreas and other transform faults.