Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides — Oak Academic Publishing
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Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides
CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
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Faculty of Science and Technology, Goias Federal University, Aparecida de Goiânia, Brazil
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CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
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CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
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CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
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CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
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CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
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Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), São José dos Campos, Brazil
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Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), São José dos Campos, Brazil
1 CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
2 Faculty of Science and Technology, Goias Federal University, Aparecida de Goiânia, Brazil
3 CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
4 CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
5 CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
6 CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
7 CEMADEN - National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters, General Coordination of Research and Development, São José dos Campos, Brazil
8 Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), São José dos Campos, Brazil
9 Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), São José dos Campos, Brazil
Landslides are highly dangerous phenomena that occur in different parts of the world and pose significant threats to human populations. Intense rainfall events are the main triggering process for landslides in urbanized slope regions, especially those considered high-risk areas. Various other factors contribute to the process; thus, it is essential to analyze the causes of such incidents in all possible ways. Soil moisture plays a critical role in the Earth ’ s surface-atmosphere interaction systems; hence, measurements and their estimations are crucial for understanding all processes involved in the water balance, especially those related to landslides. Soil moisture can be estimated from in-situ measurements using different sensors and techniques, satellite remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and indicators to index moisture conditions. Antecedent soil moisture can significantly impact runoff for the same rainfall event in a watershed. The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) or “ retained rainfall,” along with the antecedent moisture condition from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, is generally applied to estimate runoff in watersheds where data is limited or unavailable. This work aims to ex plore API in estimating soil moisture and establish thresholds based on landslide occurrences. The estimated soil moisture will be compared and calibrated using measurements obtained through multisensor capacitance probes installed in a high-risk area located in the mountainous region of Campos do Jord ã o municipality, S ã o Paulo, Brazil. The API used in the calculation has been modi fied, where the recession coefficient depends on air temperature variability as well as the climatological mean temperature, which can be considered as losses in the water balance due to evapotranspiration. Once the API is calibrated, it will be used to extrapolate to the entire watershed and consequently estimate soil moisture. By utilizing recorded mass movements and comparing them with API and soil moisture, it will be possible to determine thresholds, thus enabling anticipation of landslide occurrences.
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