Forecast Mapping of the Dynamics and Sprawl of the City of Comè

Abstract

The city of Comè adjoins the commune of Grand-Popo and the Togolese Republic. The latter is experiencing urban sprawl and the disappearance of natural ecosystems without respecting Land Use Plans. This research was initiated to analyze the dynamics observed in land use and foretell the city urban sprawl. The method used is based on both mapping and field surveys. Landsat TM 2005 and OLI TIRS 2023 images have been processed to produce environmental dynamics and sprawl in addition to geographical coordinates of infrastructure, subdivision data and populations from 1979 to 2023. The “Land Change Modeler” program used in ArcGIS was used to predict urban sprawl in 2041. Population perceptions were analyzed from surveys of 100 people. Excel 2010 was used to produce the graphs. The results showed that the city of Comè grew from 221.1 ha to 2500.1 ha between 2005 and 2023. This urban sprawl does not necessarily follow the urban planning and land use plans proposed in the Master plan for the development of the municipality (SDAC). Subdivision operations, land use, population, infrastructure and geographical location of the crossroads town have all contributed to this sprawl. By 2041, the city will have expanded to 5583.37 ha. Over time, if this accelerated and uncontrolled urbanization is ignored, the city will expand to the point where the commune, which used to produce maize, oil palm, fish and vegetable resources, will find itself unable to provide these resources for its people.