Modeling Near-Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Using WRF with 5-km Resolution in the Northern Patagonia Icefield: A Pilot Simulation

Abstract

The regional Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) Model was run for the 2000-2010 period over the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) with an horizontal resolution of 5 km. The regional model was initialized using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric Reanalysis database. The simulation results, centered over the NPI, were validated against the observed data from the local surface stations in order to evaluate the improvement of the model results due to its increased horizontal resolution with respect to the lower resolution from Global Climate Model simulations. Interest in the NPI is due to 1) the large body of frozen water expose d to the impact of the warming planet, 2) the scarce availability of observed meteorological and glaciological information in this large and remote icefield, and 3) the need to validate the model behavior in simulating the current climate and its variability in complex terrain. The results will shed light on the degree of confidence in simulating future climate scenarios in the region and also in similar geographical settings. Based on this study subsequent model runs will allow to model future climate changes in Patagonia, which is basic information for estimating glacier variations to be expected during this century.