Method Research of Earthquake Prediction and Volcano Prediction in Italy

Abstract

This paper adopts the earthquake catalogue of the European Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), in accordance with the principles of Seismo-Geothermics Theory and the concept of seismic cone; it discusses the integrity of the earthquake catalogue and the overview of Mediterranean seismic cones; it focuses on the structural details and structural feature of the Italian branch of the Mediterranean seismic cone; it deduces the precursory process of subcrustal earthquake activities before two earthquakes magnitude over 6 and the eruptions of Etna volcano since 2005; then it summarizes the prediction working method of Seismo-Geothermics on estimating the general shell strength, the general period, and the rough location of future earthquake or volcano activities; and finally it discusses and explains some possible problems. The principle and working process of this method were testified in card No. 0419 in 2012, the author’s prediction card, which can apply to predict for intracrustal strong earthquakes and volcano activities within the global twenty four seismic cones. The purpose of this paper is to develop the tools and methods of the prediction of future earthquake and volcano.