Geostatistical Analysis of the Colorada and Quimichule Canyons Located in Popocatépetl Volcano (Mexico) for the Prevention of Natural Disasters

Abstract

This paper aims to contribute to the prevention of natural disasters and generate a complement to other similar studies. The Popocatépetl volcano has showed significant and constant activity since 1994. The Colorada and Quimichule canyons are located within its geologic structure; due to their topographic features, ejected volcanic material and torrential rains in the past recent years, they put nearby communities at risk. This work presents a geostatistical analysis to obtain the gravity acceleration, slope by the distance-elevation relation, height-gravity and the fluid force on the canyons. The conversion of UTM to geographical coordinates was made with the use of the program Traninv applying the ITRF2008 epoch 2010.0 Datum and the 14 Zone; the local gravity was calculated with the use of International Organization of Legal Metrology (OIML) and the statistical analysis was obtained with the use of the Geostatistical Environmental Assessment. The structural modeling was performed using Surfer , and the spending and force were calculated using hydrological models. The correlation analysis concluded that Quimichule has the greatest gravity and that it would transport lahars faster. Mapping, geomorphological and statistical techniques and models were applied in accordance with the study to obtain the results presented here.