Exploring the Future of Malawi’s Environment Using Scenarios Approach

Abstract

Discussed in this paper are results of the study that was conducted as part of the process of compiling Malawi’s State of the Environment and Outlook Report for the year 2010. The status of the country’s economy and the nature of governance were identified as critical drivers, i.e. , “critical uncertainties”, in determining the future state of the environment in Malawi. Four environmental scenarios were developed, namely: Scenario 1: “Mkaka ndi Uchi”, a combination of good economy and good governance; Scenario 2: “Penda Penda”, a combination of poor economy and good governance; Scenario 3: “Wafa Wafa”, a combination of poor economy and poor governance; and Scenario 4: “Chonchobe/Ndawonera Momwemo”, a combination of good economy and poor governance. Each of the four scenarios will be uniquely influenced by the prevailing economic and governance situation in the country, and hence impact differently on Malawi’s environment. Economy and Governance were selected as critical determinants out of seven key environmental drivers: demography, governance, social change, economy, environment and climate change, technology, and culture and tradition. From the above listed scenarios, it is only Scenario 1, Mkaka ndi Uchi, which will result in a prosperous Malawi while the rest portend the prevalence of a chaotic situation in the country, more so Scenario 3, the Wafa Wafa scenario.