Analyzing the Mara River Basin Behaviour through Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

Abstract

Hydrological models are considered as necessary tools for water and environmental resource management. However, modelling poorly gauged watersheds has been a challenge to hydrologists and hydraulic engineers. Research done recently has shown the potential to overcome this challenge through incorporating satellite based hydrological and meteorological data in the measured data. This paper presents results for a study that used the semi-distributed conceptual HBV Light Model to model the rainfall-runoff in the Mara River Basin, Kenya. The model simulates runoff as a function of rainfall. It is built on the basis established between satellite observed and in-situ rainfall, evaporation, temperature and the measured runoff. The model’s performance and reliability were evaluated over two sub-catchments namely: Nyangores and Amala in the Mara River Basin using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency which the model referred to as Reff and the coefficient of determination (R 2 ). The R eff for Nyangores and Amala during the calibration and (validation) period were 0.65 (0.68) and 0.59 (0.62) respectively. The model showed good flow simulations particularly during the recession flows, in the Nyangores sub-catchment whereas it simulated poorly the short term fluctuations of the high-flow for Amala sub-catchment. Results from this study can be used by water resources managers to make informed decision on planning and management of water resources.