It is well established that during REM (Rapid Eye Movement) sleep, the brain processes emotions associated with stress and traumatic events. When significant traumatic exposures overwhelm this system or when REM sleep debt occurs, alterations arise that can result in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and/or anxiety. A mathematical model is derived and calibrated to simulate this process. The model includes three independent variables: number of traumatic exposures, REM sleep debt (immediately before, during, and after traumatic exposure), and relative fitness related to aerobic exercise and cardiorespiratory fitness. The model was calibrated with laboratory REM sleep measurements and a known number of trauma expressions in a video. The number of memory intrusions was used to estimate relative risk of developing PTSD. After calibration, the model was applied to published data for military personnel on deployment. While exact inputs of REM debt and number of traumatic exposures are unknown for the military data, the mathematical model predicted results close to published relative risk for PTSD using reasonable estimates of these variables. Risks for depression and anxiety are often related to exposure to stress and trauma. Various data sources were used to calibrate and evaluate the benefits of aerobic exercise and the associated cardiorespiratory fitness on risks and treatment for mood, depression, PTSD, and anxiety. The model, supported by measured data in the literature, illustrates the importance of lifestyle choices early in life on health outcomes later in life.
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