Impact of Climate Change on the Economic Performance of Farms in the Tillabéri Department, Niger: Statistic Modeling

Abstract

The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is to analyze these impacts of climate disruption on the economic performance of farms. The methodology adopted for this study combined documentary research with field surveys conducted on a sample of 250 randomly selected farmers. The analytical methods used mainly consisted of linear regression, profitability calculations, and linear programming. The findings indicate that all productions across different crops have experienced a decrease over the past 30 years. For instance, the production of millet, sorghum, and cowpea, which were respectively 812 kg/ha, 260 kg/ha, and 100 kg/ha between the last 30 and 20 years, has now dropped to 412 kg/ha, 106 kg/ha, and 46 kg/ha respectively. A negative and significant effect on agricultural net margin was observed due to variables such as flooding, drought, pest invasion in rice fields, and temperature changes. Smallholder farms show a relatively low margin (46%) to cover their fixed costs, which may indicate a risk if fixed expenses are high. Furthermore, the analysis results from linear programming reveal that farmers could achieve an additional net profit per hectare of 116,861 FCFA, 217201.5 FCFA, and 291988.2 FCFA respectively for small, medium, and large producers by managing variable costs and health-related expenses for households.