Analyzing Rainfall, Temperature, and Socioeconomic Factors behind Migration Trends — Oak Academic Publishing
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Analyzing Rainfall, Temperature, and Socioeconomic Factors behind Migration Trends
Climate Change and Human Habitat Programme, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL CC & HH), Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
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Climate Change and Human Habitat Programme, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL CC & HH), Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
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Department of Geography, Modibbo Adama University, Yola, Nigeria
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Department of Landscape Sciences and Geomatics, University of Applied Sciences, Neubrandenburg, Germany
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Department of Geography, Modibbo Adama University, Yola, Nigeria
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Climate Change and Human Habitat Programme, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL CC & HH), Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
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General Studies Department, Gombe State Polytechnic Bajoga, Bajoga, Nigeria
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Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
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Department of Geography, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
1 Climate Change and Human Habitat Programme, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL CC & HH), Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
2 Climate Change and Human Habitat Programme, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL CC & HH), Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
3 Department of Geography, Modibbo Adama University, Yola, Nigeria
4 Department of Landscape Sciences and Geomatics, University of Applied Sciences, Neubrandenburg, Germany
5 Department of Geography, Modibbo Adama University, Yola, Nigeria
6 Climate Change and Human Habitat Programme, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL CC & HH), Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
7 General Studies Department, Gombe State Polytechnic Bajoga, Bajoga, Nigeria
8 Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
9 Department of Geography, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
Climate change increasingly impacts environmental and socio-economic systems in vulnerable regions such as West Africa. This study investigates the relationship between long-term climate variability and migration patterns in north-eastern Nigeria, using rainfall and temperature data from 1981-2021 alongside migration statistics and household surveys. Non-parametric trend and correlation analyses reveal significant warming trends and high spatial variability in rainfall, while correlations between climate variables and net migration are weak and statistically non-significant. Qualitative evidence indicates that livelihood constraints and insecurity, rather than climate alone, are the primary drivers of migration. These findings suggest that climate change functions as an indirect stress multiplier, highlighting the need for policies that integrate climate adaptation with socio-economic development.
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